Friday, March 13, 2009

Another Poll, Similar Trends

Harris Decima poll, which mirrors some trends we've seen from other pollsters recently. Liberals up in Quebec, NDP support eroding and now some evidence of improved Liberal fortunes in British Columbia. Nationally, a slight uptick for the Liberals, relative to the last HD poll:
The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey put the Liberals at 33 per cent and the Conservatives at 32.

The NDP was at 14 per cent, the Greens at 10, and the Bloc Quebecois at nine.

The last HD poll had it 33% Cons, 31% Libs, so minor movement, with the Quebec numbers looking quite good:
The Conservatives have also seen their support in Quebec cut in half. The Bloc remains in front with 39 per cent support, while the Liberals have moved up to 32. The Tories have slid to 13, the NDP are at nine and the Greens at six.

The last batch of polls have all shown the Liberal numbers improving, while the Conservatives are really faltering. The 32% represents a recent high water mark for the Liberals with HD, as they seem to be emerging as the federalist option. I'd mentioned before, that the Bloc bounce we saw around the budget was part that dynamic, as well as Duceppe's 90% endorsement by Bloc rank and file. That uptick appears to have waned somewhat, and the numbers seem to show the Liberals taking advantage (this week's SC poll also suggested the Liberals were gaining at the Bloc's expense). The Conservatives are in real trouble, with each successive poll, the dire numbers cemented.

Ontario shows a tight race, with the Liberals up 38% to the Conservatives 34%, numbers fairly static from the last HD poll, and reasonably in line with others. What is particularly striking, another poll that shows the NDP hitting new lows. Earlier this week we saw a 12% number, now HD adds weight with a concerning 13%. Given this is ground zero on the economy, whatever message the NDP is putting forth isn't resonating, and they look increasingly marginalized.

We've seen some signs of slight improvement in British Columbia, and HD would also seem to suggest that:
In British Columbia, Liberal fortunes have improved significantly since the last election, but the Conservatives remain solidly ahead. The Conservatives lead with 38% followed by the Liberals with 32%, the NDP at 19% and the Greens at 9%.

High MOE, but if you look at all the polling for HD for the last few months, you see the Liberals pretty consistent, slightly above the 30% mark. You can't understate how important British Columbia might be in the next election, given where the Liberals will need to grow, so these numbers are encouraging.

Also, another poll which shows a strong Liberal lead in the Atlantic provinces.

The pollster concludes that women are moving back to the Liberals, and gives Ignatieff part of the credit:
It suggests the Tories trail the Liberals by five percentage points among women overall and by 12 points among urban women.

Jeff Walker, senior vice-president of Harris-Decima, said that's the important finding.

"Women are moving back toward the Liberals, where they had been leaning toward the Conservatives leading up to and then at the election in (October.)

"It's women overall, but in particular, among urban-dwelling women, the Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives by 12 points now and they were even at the time of the last election."

Walker said the arrival of Michael Ignatieff as Liberal leader seems to be one key to this shift. The economy is the other.

Many traditional Liberals abandoned the party under Stephane Dion, Walker noted.

"Having Ignatieff as leader of the Liberals changes that.

Given the regional distributions, if this poll were true, it would be a slight Liberal minority. That aside, this poll does support similar trends found elsewhere, which are positives for the Liberals moving forward. Interesting to see if the numbers move further in the next few months, or if we're now headed for a holding pattern, until the next election.


Frankly Canadian said...

Nice results, like a breath of fresh spring air. This gives me hope that the current Harper deceitership/dictatorship will soon be coming to along awaited end. Thanks for the good news here Steve, it makes my weekend.

Anonymous said...

Still has not broken the 33 per cent barrier as of yet.

"Walker said the arrival of Michael Ignatieff as Liberal leader seems to be one key to this shift."

From blue sweater man to red sweater man, woo-hoo!!!

"Given the regional distributions, if this poll were true, it would be a slight Liberal minority."

Not yet at this point. High volatility in rural Ontario and I need evidence to see where Layton is truly bleeding support to Iggy. I don't see it bleeding to Iggy unless I see movement of the Dippers towards first to the Greens, and then to Iggy. Otherwise, the Grits are merely hitting slingshots at Harpo while hoping that the Cons big bazooka is permanently jammed. All the Dippers needs to do is take pot shots at the Grits and they will be back to where they are in

Steve V said...

"Not yet at this point."

Actually yes, quite clearly really. Our vote is far more efficient, we win with these numbers. Not by much, but you can't seriously argue a tie or slight lead doesn't give us the edge, given what we know about bloated subsets for the Cons.

Mushroom, I'll say it one more time, anybody who actually thinks we should be high to mid 30's already, given what just happened, isn't realistic or fair for that matter. It's like a preconceived bias isn't allowing some to accept relatively good news, which this obviously is, no two ways about it. We're slightly ahead in this poll, four months after our worst showing, and that's not good?? Ya, okay. I mean seriously, are we ready for prime time here, or are we just manufacturing false thresholds.

Anonymous said...

As an aside, maybe you should comment on the speech Harper made at the Manning Centre.

Not the attack of the Grits, but taking an about turn and criticizing the libertarian, small government aspects of the Reform Party. Will we see a meaner, social conservative, populist Harper to challenge the more centrist Iggy?

marie said...

I am happy to see the results of the latest poles. Now all we have to do is turf Harper and his followers out into never land. This idiot has got to go ASAP. I don't usually feel hate for a human being but this man brings those strong feelings in me and its not a good feeling. Not healthy either as I have recently found out. I would walk across the street to avoid being anywhere near him. I don't trust this man, never have and the only way I would change my mind is to see him resign and take a hike never to return. What a hateful idiot, Sorry, I can't make myself say man at this point because he doesn’t even qualify as a human being at this point. He fits in with the Talibans.

Have a nice weekend all.

Koby said...

Liberals need to recover in Northern Ontario, recover in the Lowermainland, reverse Conservative gains in 905 (Oakville, Mississauga-Erindale, Thornhill, Oak Ridges-Markham), take back the two Kitchner seats they lost and take back some of the seats they lost in NB, but a above all else the Liberals need to break out of the Island of Montreal in Quebec and they need a strong NDP.

The last one may sound paradoxical. The Liberals are after all competing with the NDP head on for those Northern Ontario seats. However, the Liberals need the NDP to be strong enough so that they knock of the Conservatives in parts of BC and Sask. Only if this happens will the Liberals have a chance at taking more seats than the Conservatives. Just as important, the Liberals need the NDP to take enough seats such that the Liberals have the option of forming a minority government with the NDP. Otherwise they will be put in position of having to rely on the Conservatives and maybe the Bloc to pass legislation. They want to have the option of leaning right or leaning left.

DL said...

Yawn...I think if you looked at polls by Decima, SC and Ipsos in March 2008 they would say exactly what the polls are saying now. Its all about what happens in the campaign.

Steve V said...


Good thing the NDP strategists aren't YAWNING. Earlier this week, they met to come up with a new strategy, because this one CLEARLY isn't working. Only a fool yawns at those numbers.

DL said...

Parties are ALWAYS modifying their strategy as events unfold. Now, I know that a lot of Liberals wish that the NDP would start supporting Conservative legislation so that the Liberals could then have the joy of doing what opposition parties are supposed to do - oppose. But it ain't going to happen.

Steve V said...

No, no, keep opposing everything. Please. Face it, the NDP BLEW the budget debate so badly, they're now scrambling to become relevant again. You just can't defend the "didn't even read it" soundbite, and that's what's hurting you guys right now. People aren't in the mood, but the oblivious point of view works for us, so have at it.

You guys just don't get it, and that's why you'll never be more than a BIT player in national politics.

DL said...

Why don't the Liberals simply merge with the Conservatives and Ignatieff can be Harper's deputy PM. Just make official what is now de facto.

Steve V said...

The same tired line. Good.