Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Harris Decima

Another poll from Harris Decima, as everybody ramps up the frequency, trying to gauge the situation. Interestingly, HD shows no movement from last week's poll, a close race:
A new poll suggests the election frenzy gripping the country's political class isn't stirring movement among voters.

The latest Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey finds the Conservatives maintaining a slight lead in popular support, with 34 per cent to the Liberals' 30 per cent. The NDP are at 15 per cent, the Bloc Quebecois at nine and the Greens at 10.

The findings are virtually unchanged from a survey a week ago, even though politicians have been jockeying non-stop for electoral advantage. An election could theoretically be triggered as early as Friday but the NDP are now signalling their intention to prop up Stephen Harper's minority Conservative government.

The telephone survey of just over 2,000 Canadians was conducted Sept. 3-13 and is considered accurate within a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points, 19 times in 20.

Big sample, HD uses last week's findings and this week's, dropping the last with each successive week. The fact that we see little movement is interesting, given the clear signals that the Liberals are "wearing" the election speculation.


Internals released:

In Ontario, the survey found the Liberals and Tories in a statistical dead heat, with 38 per cent and 35 per cent support respectively. The NDP was a distant third with 15 per cent while the Greens had 10 per cent.

In Quebec, the Bloc extended its lead slightly. The separatist party stood at 39 per cent, with the Liberals at 30 per cent, the Tories at 16, the NDP at seven and the Greens at six.

British Columbia:
The Conservatives maintained the advantage in B.C., with 36 per cent. The Liberals and NDP were tied at 23 per cent while the Greens had 17 per cent.


bigcitylib said...

No link?

Incidentally, no sign here that NDP support is any better or worse than its been.

Steve V said...

I'm sure undercutting your entire message the last 3 years will be a big hit with the public.

Reid said...

One thing, while I take polls with a grain of salt, this HD poll doesn't negate the IR poll. With a rolling average poll, as HD is, you see the trend of what's happening vs the stand alone polls which show the snapshot in time. So it's a mistake to compare the two types and say one negates the other. They're different methodologies and you have to look at the results differently.

Each type of poll has it's pros and cons. While a rolling average poll is superior for showing trends, where it fails is that it doesn't adequately capture discreet, one time events, that are captured in the stand alone polls.

Steve V said...

What you said, makes no sense whatsoever. It does negate the Ipsos poll, as does every other outfit.

One time events? Hmmm, then why have they essentially replicated it twice, Ipsos I mean?

DL said...

I notice that these numbers from Decima add up to 98 - so I guess that someone is fractionally above what the numbers say.

This is not particularly good news for the Tories. After endlessly haranguing the Liberals about "coalitions with so-called socialists and separatists" and after saturating TV with their brutal anti-Ignatieff attack ads (I was watching a football game on Sunday and the Tory ads were on CONSTANTLY) - they are still stuck at 34%....and what happens when that 10% Green figure inevitably collapses to a more realistic 5% level? the soft green will go Liberal, NDP, BQ, not vote at all or vote Tory - that order.

Steve V said...

"Second choice" consideration is the key behind the numbers.

Reid said...

Steve. Clearly you don't understand. For example a rolling average poll wouldn't have captured the effect of the RCMP investigation into a potential leak from Goodale, or his ministry, on income trusts. A stand alone poll would. That incident moved the polls, what - 11% overnight?

You can't compare the two types of polls as apples to apples because they're apples to oranges. Just sayin'

Anonymous said...

Strangely, this whole conversation repeats one from a few weeks ago. Almost word for word.

I'm not biting this time.

Let's just leave it at Ipsos is right in a parallel universe . . . a conservative one. The timing of their releases in relation to key conservative media points at any given time and how their analysis closely tracks those media talking points to a tee is a fascinating phenomenon though. And, strangely, they always swing back into the actual universe just as the voting begins. A modern miracle for us all to behold.


Steve V said...


Yes, I understood the most basic of point you're making like it's DEEP. What I'm saying, you can still compare the two, it's a false distinction you've made. It's not apples and oranges, it's Gala and Delicious.

Dame said...

Steve I always thought you are overestimating the REAL WORTH when reading the polls Now I am just dismissing them all .

I Read this artickle http://www2.macleans.ca/2009/09/15/nanosipsos-the-unloved-one-that-would-be-ignatieff-if-you-were-wondering/
and I was shocked about The idioticy of the actual questions... they were using..
This is no way To measure the pulse of the nation... it leads to total misreadings . It is a fraud .

Steve V said...


It's like the Canadian Rasmussen.

Steve V said...


Honestly, I think it foolish to dismiss them all. You think Layton is acting as such without polling data? It effects our political discourse to a great extent, decisions are made based on numbers. Period.

You're right about loaded questions, which is why a critical eye is required.

Anonymous said...

Steve, we think way too much alike sometimes . . . I almost used that phrase in my first comment ;)

Dame said...

Well maybe not dimissing all but I was apalled when read the actual questions..

the problem is the whole thing comes with a few Numbers at the end as indicating the trends.... you know the expression "garbage in ... garbage out"""
we should expose these lies this is a lie ...

By the way I am reading your Colums as a first thing in the morning you are one of the best with lots of insights, wisdom and good analysing works...
keep it going please..

Steve V said...


Much appreciated :) I hear you on the questions. I don't take the polls at face value, I like to see the questions and the pdf's. Unfortunately, some of them don't let you see everything (Ipsos for one). I firmly believe that we should have FULL public disclosure for all PUBLICLY released polling. We should also have third party scrutiny to digest the framing of questions. Polls affect our discourse, they affect the media, they play a large role, so it irks me that they can shape narratives with no accountability.


Maybe that's why I've always complimented you on your insightful commentary ;) hehe.

Steve V said...

These polls just got a whole lot more meaningless, what with the separatists and socialists propping up the Cons. My goodness, who would have thunk it a few weeks ago, the Libs the ONLY real opposition.

Patrick said...

"I'm sure undercutting your entire message the last 3 years will be a big hit with the public."

Steve you were often the first one to support and defend the liberals when they would change tactics or positions on certain issues. I'm fine with the NDP changing sides on this one because frankly, we can't afford an election at this time anyways. Maybe Jack Layton is actually keeping Ignatieff's hopes alive after all.

Steve V said...


I was fine with on several occasions, sometimes I wasn't. Most of the "fine" part had to do with the ridiculousness of wanting an election every other week. Besides, that's sort of irrelevant to three years of messenging that spoke to this criticism you just mentioned, then turning around and DOING the exact same thing you chastized others for. My only point, the NDP are NO different than their targets, the sanctimony is offensive, willing to put self interest above principle, etc. I don't really disagree with the strategy from a detached perspective, they're broke, they have no candidates and they'll lose seats. Lavigne said they'll spend the max, that will handicap the party for years in the future- you heard it here first.