Wednesday, September 09, 2009

Raining Polls

A new Harris Decima poll, with little data released as of yet:

OTTAWA — A new poll suggests Canadians think Michael Ignatieff is wrong to try to force an election this fall and the Liberal leader’s popularity has nosedived as a result.

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey also suggests Liberal fortunes have dipped, with the Conservatives taking a slight lead nationally — 34% to 31%.

The NDP was at 15%, the Greens at 10%, and the Bloc Quebecois at 8%.

According to the poll, respondents with a negative impression of Ignatieff jumped 15 points from March, to 41%.

Thirty-nine per cent had a favourable impression, down six points.

Stephen Harper isn’t doing much better — impressions of the prime minister remained virtually unchanged with 44% having a favourable opinion and 45% having an unfavourable opinion.

Ignatieff has "nosedived" to even with Harper, so let's keep it all in perspective.

As for the national numbers, again this "Liberals dipped" presentation isn't really evident. The last HD poll had it 32% Libs, 31% Cons, NDP 16%, Greens 11%, Bloc 9%. More a Conservative uptick than a Liberal wane, mirroring what Nanos just released.

More later, because the devil is in the details...

Regionals actually look better than I thought. Decima gives us a nice edge in Ontario:
In the crucial battleground of Ontario, the Liberals were at 39 per cent, followed closely by the Tories at 34 per cent, the NDP at 16 and the Greens at 10.

In Quebec, where Liberal strategists are hoping to capture up to 30 seats, the Bloc remains solidly in front with 36 per cent support. The Liberals had 31 per cent, the Conservatives 16 per cent, the NDP nine and the Greens six.

British Columbia:
The Tories opened up a substantial lead in British Columbia, with 37 per cent to the Liberals' 27 per cent, the NDP's 19 and the Greens' 16

I would describe all three of those regionals as encouraging for the Liberals, nothing near the "Liberals fading" narrative that seems to accompany these polls. Not to shabby actually, let the games begin!


Steve V said...

Have to wait for the pdf, but it's a bit misleading to say Ignatieff is paying a huge price, when you use MARCH as your baseline. Odd point of reference.

Anonymous said...

It amazes me how the media and Conservatives are playing this whole 'Ignatieff is causing this election' card. Why is it perceved by everyone that Ignatieff is the blame. Canadians aren't familiar with how our system of government works. The job of the opposition is not to keep the government alive in a minority parliament. In fact, it is the Prime Minister's job to maintain the support of the house. If the Prime Minister cannot maintain support of the house, the Prime Minister is to blame.

Why haven't Canadians been opposed to the NDP or Bloc withdrawing support for the Conservatives all this time? Why, only when the Liberals decide they can no longer support them is this a huge deal and the Liberals trashed in the media? Canadians should be upset and worried that the Prime Minister cannot keep his government alive for longer than a year. This says something about Mr. Harper. It takes 3 opposition parties to make this government fall. I don't see why the Liberals would be to blame.

The sad part about this whole thing is that the media focuses on Mr. Ignatieff and lets Harper and the other opposition leaders off the hook.

Anonymous said...

The Liberals are holding their own in the regional sub-samples, which are now out in a CP story.

Steve V said...

This little tidbit for my coalition friends:

But the poll suggests the coalition idea isn't necessarily the bogeyman Tories think it is; there are circumstances in which most Canadians would support it.

If the next election results in a minority, 55 per cent said the leading partner should seek out a coalition partner to extend the life of the Parliament.

Oxford County Liberals said...

Anything on the Maritimes in this regional update?

Jerry Prager said...

Anonymous 2:37 (addressing commenters like that always reminds me of citing Bible chapter and verse)so here's my exegesis of your point: the reason Canadians dont understand how our system works was very evident in the proroguement scandal in which Harper and Mad Dog Baird and co were allowed to lie about the nature of Canadian and British democracy and no one in the press but Don Newman called them on it.

Anonymous said...

The media have no business telling the government what to do. They can't even look after their own problems let a lone the Governments.Anon 2:20, it is a fact that educated people see Harper for what he is and the uneducated are just that, simple brainwashed underaged kids sitting at their Cp's spinning lies.Easly led might I add. Those damn Media people who have no class and don't know beans.
it is the Prime Minister's job to maintain the support of the house. If the Prime Minister cannot maintain support of the house, the Prime Minister is to blame.

Well said and that's the whole truth. Cheers, Marie

Anonymous said...

Just a reminder and a look at the letter sent to the GG in Sepember from the Reform Cons/Harper on forming a coalition. Remember that he is so against one and he will have egg on his face if the Libs rub his nose in it.

September 9, 2004

Her Excellency the Right Honourable Adrienne Clarkson,
C.C., C.M.M., C.O.M., C.D.
Governor General
Rideau Hall
1 Sussex Drive
Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0A1

As leaders of the opposition parties, we are well aware that, given the Liberal minority government, you could be asked by the Prime Minister
to dissolve the 38th Parliament at any time should the House of Commons fail to support some part of the government's program.
We respectfully point out that the opposition parties, who together constitute a majority in the House, have been in close consultation. We believe that, should a request for dissolution arise this should give you cause, as constitutional practice has determined, to consult the opposition leaders and consider all of your options before exercising your constitutional authority.
Your attention to this matter is appreciated.
Hon. Stephen Harper, P.C., M.P.
Leader of the Opposition
Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada
Also signed by Duceppe and Layton 314 92

Touche,Whats good for the goose is good for the gander.You can try to make people forget but the paper trail points directly back the Reform/Cons and Harper.

spin, spin spin, spin

Anonymous said...

I think it's funny that a 5-point spread in Ontario is "followed closely" but 3 points overall somehow represents a "slight lead" as a result of a "nosedive."

It's just funny mincing. I for one would love to see just one media outlet cut through the "exclusive" polling arrangements and whatnot and just say "it's close, as it has been all summer." That's more accurate than any of the slicing and dicing of definitions and descriptions that is being carried out.

Steve V said...

Every piece on this polls has referred to declining "party" fortunes. The Lib numbers haven't moved at all. Can't even analyze correctly, blows my mind Joseph.