Sunday, January 24, 2010

Ipsos Poll

Not my favorite pollster in terms of reliability, but their numbers confirm the trend, from a 13% lead to a virtual tie in two months:

Conservatives would garner 34% of the vote if an election was held today, compared to 31% for the Liberals.

The NDP would capture 17%, the Bloc Quebecois nine% and the Green Party eight%, the poll suggests.

The poll by Ipsos-Reid is the third national sampling of voter intentions released within the past week that has said the Tory lead over the Grits has all but evaporated.

A rarity, only one party is up from the last Ipsos poll, the Liberals. Mind you, it's not hard to rebound from a 24% finding, but this does represent another poll which puts the Liberals back over 30%. Poll to poll, Libs up 7%, Cons minus 3%, NDP minus 2%, Greens minus 2%.

IR shows a statistical tie in Ontario, quite a change from the 10% lead in late November, and the Liberals up 9%. NDP sit at 15%, which explains their drop- Ipsos had them at a curiously high 21% in November.

In Quebec, the first 30% score we've seen from any pollster for the Liberals in some time. 37% for the Bloc, 15% for the Cons, no result posted for the NDP. I'd remain sceptical of this finding, seems a tad high, but all the polls have shown a small Liberal rise recently.

Anyways, whenever you see a story in the National Post detailing the "evaporated" Conservative lead, accompanied by a concession that NO, Haiti isn't helping the government change channels, it's a good day.

Looking forward, I've seen virtually no criticism directed towards the Liberals for showing up in Ottawa tomorrow. A very professional tone, this looks to be another week where the opposition effectively fills the political vacuum, created by Harper.


A Eliz. said...

Harper is going to Davos..for what..just a photo-op to see how well he does with the rich.

Steve V said...

Harper can do what he wants, he's basically screwed until the budget, then we'll see. Harper handed the Liberals a massive gift, now lets take advantage. If we stay aggressive, and this all culminates in a bold agenda coming out of Montreal, we could actually knock them off, once and for all.

This back to work idea is a winner, and the interactive, grassroots outreach of this thinkers conference, provides a fantastic contrast in style.

Ignatieff's changed rhetoric on offering prorogue restraints might be the first sign that we understand what is required to capture the mood of the country. This is a moment to redefine, I hope people understand that.

Jerry Prager said...

The Harpercons will face a very tough battle in Ontario because CAPP will be every where they are, whenever they are there. This is becoming personal to the majority of voters who have voted against his policies and his character three times now.

We are not his party to be whipped.

Steve V said...

The fact the biggest rallies occured in Ontario should worry them. The polls also show, anger over this is highest in Ontario. Given it's a very volatile province at the moment, this has moved many people away. The Conservatives problem, they actually thought we were getting attached to Harper, when really it's always been about least worst. That's why everytime he makes an error, his majority evaporates, it's soft support, always has been. Now, the Liberals need to provide an attractive harbor.

Patrick Ross said...

It seems to me that Jerry is overestimating the staying power CAPP will have once Parliament is back in session again.

Once the proroguement is over, that complaint won't carry the same weight as previously.

Now, that being said, speculation holds that an austerity budget is on its way down the tubes.

That means program cuts -- possibly even cuts to some programs that wider swaths of Canadians cherish.

Cutting the court challenges program and various other advocacy-funding programs is one thing. If the Harper government were to cut the budget to, say, the CBC, how well would Canadians respond to that?

The obvious answer: not well.

The proroguement protests are one thing. It's the hard choices the Conservatives are going to have to make while preparing this budget that will hurt them at the polls.

The Pundits' Guide said...

Steve, where did you find the rest of the regionals? I didn't see them in the version of the story I came across.

RuralSandi said...

Harper's apparently dealing with the high health care costs in his next budget....road to privatization?

RuralSandi said...

When I watched CTV's Question Period yesterday I couldn't stand Taber anymore so clicked over to CPAC which is quite good - has a political discusion and phone-in show (same time as QP).

One senior called in very, very angry. She'd gotten notice that the increase in her pension will ONLY be $0.95. Yup, 95 cents per month. This is an area that Libs could work on.

Unfortunately, she seemed a little bigotted and was angry that the government is helping Haiti and should be looking after Canadians instead.

Steve V said...


Sorry, that was from the NNW link.