Wednesday, January 27, 2010

"Too Close To Call Terrority"

A new Harris Decima, which shows a change from last week's publication. One thing to point out, it was actually a two week gap in polling despite release time. This poll was done last Thursday to Sunday. Another statistical tie, the piano has left the building:
The latest Harris-Decima survey conducted for the Canadian Press suggests the Conservatives and Liberals are in a statistical dead heat, with 32 per cent supporting the Tories and 31 per cent for the Liberals.

The NDP were at 15 per cent, while the Bloc and the Green party each had 10 per cent

Per usual, HD doesn't release much else in the way of regionals. However, we see a 4% national gap now fall to 1%, as the Conservatives shave off another 2% in support, the Liberals up 1%.

Gregg attributes the new polling reality to Harper`s self inflicted wounds, rather than anything Ignatieff is doing. One slight quibble, Gregg is relying on the same two week old data to support this characterization. My instincts tell me that Ignatieff has enjoyed the best two week period since his initial honeymoon. I suspect some measure of traction, which is now starting to edge the Liberals up ever so slightly. I`ll be paying attention to some of the leadership numbers in the coming weeks, to see if there is evidence of minor rebound. That said, the now normal theme of statistically tied polls is clearly a by-product of Harper`s tactical superiority, he does deserve full credit.

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