Elizabeth May has credibility on the environment that goes beyond partisanship. If May endorses Dion for Prime Minister it has an objective flavour that makes her support relevant. May's isn't a Liberal, May worked for Mulroney, May takes the unprecedented step of sacrificing her party's own self-interest, in the name of what is best for Canada. That is a powerful statement, especially as it relates to a Liberal leader, desperate to look a credible alternative and get some traction. The May/MacKay battle will garner national attention, which gives May a audience to make her points, within the frame of indirect support for Dion. I view May's position as pure political gold for Dion.
Another advantage, May's move undercuts the NDP. I say this from the Liberal perspective, May's "decision" could make the NDP appear divisive. Here we have a Green leader, willing to work together, against a common foe. That reality sends a message to voters that we can't afford to divide the vote, with Harper the benefactor. If that sentiment takes shape, the soft NDP voter might be inclined to move to the Liberals. Layton could come off as partisan, the odd man out, as others move to work together. I really believe the NDP risks being boxed in, and any harsh attacks on the Liberals might fall flat. From the Liberal perspective, I see the Green move as indirectly hurting the NDP, which again says advantage Dion.
When Harper attacks the Liberal environmental plan as a economic killer that relies on taxes, Dion now has an ally to join the retort chorus. People tire of the Liberal/Conservative point, counter-point arguments, often time it's tuned out as naked partisanship. Enter May, the calm, respected voice, who has Dion's back and the dynamic changes. When Tories howl about inaction and 13 years, we now have an interesting perspective. Voters may ask themselves, if Dion is such a fraud, then why is the Green leader speaking highly, offering support. Please explain how Dion loses, or Harper gains.
I'm not sure that May's move is a good for the Green Party, it's risky, particularly with the growing support. However, if I focus on Liberal prospects solely, this alliance looks a winner, in many respects.
19 comments:
Steve said "May takes the unprecedented step of sacrificing her party's own self-interest, in the name of what is best for Canada.", and in this context his statement could also refer to Dion.
I also do not see a down side, and this could very well keep the neoCons up late trying to figure it out, "what, for the good of Canada, what a strange idea?"
"what, for the good of Canada, what a strange idea?"
Sassy, that sentiment is particularly striking, given the hyper-politicism of Harper. It's a great frame developing, and I don't think it casts Harper in a good light. The polls show Harper doing well, but they also consistently have shown that people think the policies are politically motivated. A Dion/May tandem highlights a sense beyond ambition, appearance wise anyways. I see the theme developing, and it's our best chance.
As an aside, the new investigation into the Liberals polling is proving to be another example of Harper's overt politicism. Rex Murphy tore into Harper tonight, actually used the word "disgusting" and it made the Conservatives look pathetic. We can define Harper, and May is a great ally in exposing his true motivations, for EVERYTHING.
Good post Steve. I saw Rex's piece too. I often do not agree with him but this time he was bang on. What he said would be great post material if you had it in writing.
"I often do not agree with him but this time he was bang on."
Ditto. Tonight he summed it up perfectly. That "investigation" could bite Harper, because nobody is buying it.
I'm not so sure the Liberals come out of this scott-free; what if, as a result of this alliance, they are forced to defend some of the "kookier" points of the Green Party platform? And doesn't this give Layton some ammunition in the form of May being "anti-choice," not to mention some other more conservative views she holds? Dion is making a mistake by tying himself to the Greens, as it may make him appear guilty by association once the public really gets a chance to examine everything the Greens stand for.
Many Liberals appear upset at the decision not to run a Liberal in Central Nova (including Martha Hall Findlay, who seemed to express concern with the idea on Mike Duffy Live tonight). Besides, this decision might actually prove to be a bigger boost to the NDP than May, since only 3000 of those Liberal votes would need to swing to the NDP in order for them to nab the riding (assuming, of course, that none of them swing to Peter "the Red Tory" MacKay).
I'm with Daniel and Mississauga, bad move.
The odds of the Liberal vote moving to the Greens vs. moving to the NDP or CPC is low at best.
The Greens don't have a force on the ground. That alone can't be under emphasized.
I doubt the local Libs will be sharing their voter/donation lists. Correct?
I doubt the Liberal volunteers will be banging down E.May's door cause bobble-head told them to. Correct?
The result is that Lib's are surrendering the majority of their voters to their main competitors who will be able to field volunteers, fund mail and drop-offs, have donations and voter lists.
It looks like Dion sacrificed a riding for the only person in Canada who actually thinks positive of him.
It looks like Dion surrendered to the #5 party.
Cheers,
lance
Unfortunately, the environment will not be the defining issue in the next election.
Besides the ambiguous matter of “leadership,” the only issue the Conservatives have a solid lock on is CRIME. Mark my words, the government will fight the next election on crime. Liberals, NDP, Green, anyone who dreads a shift to the right must start SCREAMING the truth about crime NOW! Selling fear is much easier than selling truth; we need a large, loud head start. Leadership on the left is afraid of this issue; the chorus must come from the grassroots.
Crime is not out of control. Punishment is not a deterrent. US crime solutions will create US crime rates.
Don’t go on the defensive over crime!
What's to lose here? Normally, either the NDP or Conservatives would win anyway - why not give it a try. Liberals will have lost nothing as they wouldn't win anyway.
But the one thing that this brings back - old fashioned respect in politics. Imagine - two politicians respecting each other.
Jack Layton rides on Tommy Douglas' reputation but doesn't do anyting like Douglas would do. Douglas worked with Liberal parties on principal (i.e. MacKenzie King). Jack Layton talks alot about Douglas but sure "ain't no Tommy Douglas".
Do you suppose people might notice that there are two parties willing to work for the good of the country - I hope so.
I've had enough of this repulican style of bash and trash marketing like their selling soap suds.
It's worth a try and nothing to lose and possibly a lot to gain in my opinion.
"if Dion is such a fraud, then why is the Green leader speaking highly"
... because clearly she's turned out to be as poor a choice for the greens as Stephanie is for the Liberals.
anon
Keep telling yourself that.
seriously - she's doing the Green party a huge disservice.
and I can't believe the LPC would want to give up being "a national party, running in all ridings".
Libs were coached by Howard Dean, after his successful campaign
in the US, to help Libs get back Canada!
Dion does exactly the opposite to Dean's winning strategy.
A demoralized Liberal riding assoc will be hard/impossible to resurrect, after May loses.
Oh well, grassroots doesn't matter to the Libs.
Can't get more top down than Dion picking an opposition candidate to run in a riding.
"sacrificing her party's own self-interest, in the name of what is best for Canada"
Riiiight.
If this was a CPC candidate, the libs would be calling it an unabashed power-grab of the lowest order. "Power at all costs!!!"
That's ok, though. People who park their votes with the greens will do so. The liberal vote will get divided up between the dippers and the cons. Result? Same.......
"I can't believe the LPC would want to give up being "a national party, running in all ridings".
Deciding not to run in one riding, hardly constitutes a "regional" party. I'm taking all the criticism as proof that this is a shrewd move.
To quote Steve from his previous post:
"What can Dion do?"
Well here is part of your answer. It is the curse of being the opposition leader that you will be largely ignored, with the requisite impact on the leadership numbers in any poll.
In the past oppostion leaders have pulled silly stunts to get noticed or they have gone over the top in attacking the government to get noticed.
Stephane Dion has done something more positive. He has decided to cooperate with another person whose concern for the environment matches his own and that of the Canadian people, despite the fact she is from another political party.
And that is one of the ways the Liberals should couch this when they explain this action.
The usual suspects have come out against this making predictable arguments. However, I have yet to see one argument that really makes me think this is not a good move.
Of course, as further details come out over the next day or two that could change but for now I see more advantages to this than disadvantages.
"The usual suspects have come out against this making predictable arguments"
Predictable, and not terribly effective. The best counter, May should get out and do interviews, because the media generally takes her at her word.
"I'm taking all the criticism as proof that this is a shrewd move."
Yes, because widespread criticism of an action ALWAYS means it's a shrewd move...
Stephen Harper was widely criticised for the Navdeep Bains smear; must have been a shrewd move. Scott Reid was widely criticised for his "beer and popcorn" remark; must have been a shrewd move. etc., etc....
Anyway, I don't think Dion's motives are quite as snow-white as some of you think. Of course, I can't blame him for trying to de-fuse a party that could eat into his vote - but if Dion didn't think that this would somehow benefit the Liberals, he wouldn't be doing it.
What many forget is that Green supporters often tend to be people who are tired of the main parties and "politics as usual"; being endorsed by perhaps the most mainstream party in the country doesn't do much to attract those voters.
The commenters on this blog thing that Dion and May did the right thing? Where do you folks get the drugs cause they gotta be good!!! Since when is the leader endorsing another party good for his party? If I were a member of any party whose leader was so stupid I would demand his resignation immediately. DUMB DUMB DUMB
"Yes, because widespread criticism of an action ALWAYS means it's a shrewd move..."
Widespread in Liberal circles? If the NDP is upset, then that speaks volumes. Check the source, and then decide if it's shrewd.
"DUMB, DUMB, DUMB"
Judging by your comments, you would be the expert on the above ;)
Post a Comment