Harper Going Nowhere

Another national poll, which demonstrates some interesting themes. Yes, it would appear that Harper has made strides in Quebec, but those gains are clearly countered elsewhere in Canada, resulting in a net nothing for the Tories:

Conservatives

Mar 28th poll______Apr 12 poll



Ont 35% down 8____Ont 37% up 2
BC 37% down 7____BC 39% up 2
Que 26% up 1_____Que 31% up 5
Alb 58% same_____Alb 68% up 10
SaMa 42% down 2____SaMa 39% down 3
Atl 37% down 3____Atl 31% down 6


Liberals

Ont 38% up 5______Ont 40% up 2
BC 31% same______BC 32% up 1
Que 23% down 3____Que 21% down 2
Alb 18% down 6____Alb 18% same
SaMa 24% up 7_____SaMa 29% up 5
Atl 48% up 13____Atl 43% down 5

National

Tories 36_______Tories 38 up 2
Libs 31_________Libs 32 up 1
NDP 15__________NDP 14 down 1
Green 9_________Green 8 down 1
Bloc 8__________Bloc 8 same

The March 28 results from Ipsos show the trends from the prior poll. The Liberals are up a full 12% in Sask/Man in the last two polls, while the Conservatives have dropped 5%. In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are still up 8% from two polls ago, the Conservatives down 9%. British Columbia, the Liberals stay firm, but the Tories are down 5%, following the trend. Ontario looks competitive, but again the trends show a Liberal bounce and a Tory erosion, Liberals up 7% in the last two polls, Tories down 6%.

I'm including three polls here, using the first as a baseline, because it gives a better flavor of the trends. The latest poll says Liberals down in Atlantic Canada, but given the 13% jump they enjoyed in the Mar 28th poll, it looks more like a simple correction than a real dip in support.

The real bright spot for Harper is obviously Quebec, where the Conservatives are now statistically tied with the Bloc, while the Liberals slowly fade. One caveat, if there is one province where Dion has the potential to rebound, it's his home province, and that should be factored in during a campaign. Having said that, Harper is well positioned to pickup seats in Quebec, although there is little chance of a "sweep".

The regional breakdowns are important because they show that whatever gains made in Quebec, the Conservatives could well lose elsewhere. The numbers in Sask/Man should cause some pause, and Atlantic Canada might be lost entirely, particularly when you factor in the new independent analysis that shows the cost of the Tory equalization proposals.

The Conservatives enjoy a slight bounce since the last poll, although it is within the MOE. However, when you factor out the irrelevant 10% rise in Alberta (you can't win more than the already 100% of seats), the slight bump looks like a plateau from here. Harper's courtship of Quebec has curried favour, but it has done little for his chances overall, as he clearly alienates other regions.