Conservatives retain a solid 10-point lead nationally over the rival Liberals but continue to fall short of the numbers needed to form a majority government.
The survey said support for the Tories was up three points to 39%, while support for the Liberals dropped three points to 29%.
The NDP climbed two points to 16%, the Bloc Québécois edged up to 9% from eight and the Green party slipped to 7% from eight.
the Quebec picture is a bright spot for the Conservatives. The survey said the party continues to run second to the Bloc, and well ahead of the third-place Liberals.
Bloc support stood at 34%, the Conservatives at 28%, and the Liberals were at 20%. The NDP and Greens stood at 13 and 4% respectively
In Ontario, the Conservatives were up five to 42%, the Liberals were down five to 35%, the NDP was up one point to 13% and the Green party held at 10%.
In British Columbia, the Liberals stood at 34%, while the Tories trailed at 30%, dropping nine points. The NDP garnered 27% and Greens had 7%.
In neighbouring Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the Tories surged nine percentage points to 48%, while the Grits dropped eight percentage points to 21% — one point higher than the NDP. The Greens were at 8%.
A total of 46% of Atlantic Canadians favoured the Liberals, while Tory support came in at 28%. The NDP stood at 24%, while the Greens had 1%.
I don't really understand what could have happened in three weeks, since the last Ipsos poll to justify a 9% Tory surge in the Prairies, or for that matter a 9% drop in British Columbia. The last Ipsos poll showed similar wild regional fluctuations, it might be time for a bigger sample size, or don't bother releasing the internals. I'm not putting much faith in these regional numbers.
Having said that, it is surprising that the National Post has the headline "Voters still nowhere near giving Harper his majority", because normally anything that comes close to 40% is hailed as big momentum. I wonder if the Conservative polling shows an uptick as well, given today's strange stall on fixed election dates.
It is noteworthy, the NDP is up in this poll, while the Liberals and Greens fade. This is the first post-Dion/May poll, given the harsh initial coverage, this result isn't particularly shocking.