First, you have to assume that the opposition doesn't unite to bring down the government anytime soon. I take that premise as a reasonable given, which means the onus still lies with the government. When you look at the future landscape, you see an opportunity in the fall, when the government could deliver a goodie-filled mini-budget. However, the fall brings incredible risk for the Conservatives.
The last few weeks have shown us a very relevant point, Afghanistan is the wildcard moving forward. I think there is some co-relation to the Tory fall in the polls and what has happened recently in Afghanistan. Of note, we saw the same pattern last year during the Taliban's "busy" season. It is realistic to assume that Canada will suffer more casualties this summer, through the fall. It is also probable that for the first time casualties will come from the province of Quebec. Harper, the control freak, moving toward an election, with the uncertainty in Afghanistan on the front burner, I don't think so.
The Afghanistan reality brings me to the late winter/early spring of 2008. We will have another budget, but maybe more important, Afghanistan should be relatively quiet, if the standard pattern persists. That's not to say Afghanistan won't be an issue, because it clearly will, but only that the odds are better that it won't be THE issue in the early spring.
There is another important point with regard to Afghanistan. Any election after the spring 0f 2008 and the Tories face the rising crescendo, as it relates to extending the mission. The Conservatives can fluff off the calls for future clarification now, but the debate will only intensify the closer we get to the 2009 deadline. Again, that potentially heated discussion essentially guarantees Afghanistan as central topic in any election.
Time will tell, but I'm inclined to think that the Tory strategists have circled early 2008 as the earliest, and maybe only, window on the horizon.
12 comments:
You also need to remember Ontario has a mandated election in the fall of this year (October I believe), and I have my doubts Harper would try to fall around this time period.
(No pun intended in the use of the word "fall" by the way ;) )
Thanks Scott, that's a great point.
Newfoundland and Labrador also has a mandated election in October (the 9th i think).
"Newfoundland and Labrador also has a mandated election in October (the 9th i think)."
That would be fun :)
There are way too many variables at play to make a real accurate guess.
If as you say Afghanistan becomes an issue it will cost the Conservatives in Quebec, most likely, to the benefit of the Bloc. However, in the rest of the country it would probably benefit the Liberals.
So this fall we could see the Bloc fortunes rising in Quebec and Liberal fortunes rising in the ROC which could encourage one of them to put forward a motion of non-confidence in the House targeting the conduct of the war. It would come after the Ontario election and it could be that defining issue that has been missing this spring.
If both the Bloc and the Liberals see the opportunity they will go for it and the NDP would be hard pressed to support the government on that kind of motion, even if they find themselves in less than an ideal position.
Bottom line, the timing of the next election will depend on the fortunes of the government. If the current Conservative troubles continue for an extended period we will see an election sooner rather than later.
ottlib
I didn't really touch on the opposition forcing an election. As you point out, conditions could change, that might make an election more attractive for the Liberals and Bloc.
My guess is Harpor is twisting O'Connor's nipple to ensure all Van Doos are kept in the kitchen and KP duty for the foreseeable future. Someone's gotta stay back and scrub those Leopards lemony-fresh!
burl
I wouldn't put it past them to alter the mission because of partisan considerations.
Oh wouldn't that go over well with the Base.
"It was revealed today that the Canadian Forces in Afghanistan are limiting the combat operations of the Vandoos and other Francophone military units leading to increased combat operations for anglophone units.
Speculation is the government has decided to take this unprecedented action because they fear the repercussions to Conservative fortunes in Quebec if soldiers with French Canadian surnames are listed amongst the casualties.
When reach for comment a government spokesman stated that it was all the Liberals fault and to ask questions about the mission was to take sides with the Taliban. In fact, the spokesman hinted that the person who revealed the story today is a Liberal plant working for the Taliban. When questioned further on this allegation he backtracked and said the person is actually a Taliban plant working for the Liberals."
vcxgnbkRemember last year, when it was reported that soldiers were being trained to be reporters?
Perhaps the Van Doos will get super home grown media coverage, and Quebecers will swell with pride.
That's my hope,
not the counting body bags.
Would PMSH be in the record books if his minority government makes it to the Oct 19, 2009 election date?
ottlib
Do you have a link? That is outrageous, if anglo units have a disporportionate combat angle.
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