Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s minority Conservatives regained a tenuous lead of 36 per cent, a five-point increase over last week.
With the Liberals at 32 per cent, the New Democratic Party at 14 per cent, the Green party at seven per cent, and the Bloc Quebecois at nine per cent nationally.
Can anyone possibly cobble together one coherent argument to explain a Tory bounce? With all due respect, and partisanship aside, this result is ridiculous.
Want more proof? If you had to pick one other politician who has had a worse week than Harper, who would it be? The easy answer, Duceppe. Well according to Ipsos, Bloc support up as well:
The data showed the Bloc was up four points over the previous week, even though the poll was conducted as Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe was widely mocked for his about-face on seeking the provincial Parti Quebecois leadership.
The nonsense continues with the regional breakdowns:
Conservatives recovered most of a significant decline in support in British Columbia and Alberta, recorded last week in the wake of the government’s climate change policy announcement of mandatory reductions in pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.
Last week Ipsos had the Tories down 13 points in Alberta, and 19 points in British Columbia, which was hard to fathom. This week, they have recovered, which tells me that it is a false bounce, because the baseline was unreliable. Volatility is one thing, but these wild swings put the entire poll into question. As I've said before, Ipsos should just forget about the regionals, because they simply lack credibility.
I would argue even a Tory loyalist would have a hard time believing these results. The only reasonable argument, Harper benefited from Duceppe's gaffe, but you can't even go there, because the Bloc is up in Quebec. I feel completely confident in saying subsequent polls, from other outfits, will show this is a clear outlier.
Well what the hell do I know? Strategic Council also has a poll, which again shows the Bloc up in Quebec, despite Duceppe's blunders:
The poll conducted by the Strategic Counsel for The Globe and Mail and CTV News places the Tories three percentage points head of Stéphane Dion's Liberals, 34-31. The NDP, buoyed by gains in the West, rose three percentage points to 16 per cent.
The Liberal lead in Ontario shrank to three percentage points, and although the Grits regained second place in Quebec in a see-saw battle with the Tories, the first-place Bloc Québécois also increased slightly despite Leader Gilles Duceppe's flip-flop on seeking the leadership of the Parti Québécois.
Liberals: 24 per cent (+2)
Conservatives: 20 per cent (-6)
NDP: 6 per cent (-3)
Bloc Quebecois: 41 per cent (+5)
Green Party: 9 per cent (+2)
West(whatever that means):
Conservatives: 42 per cent (-8)
Liberals: 22 per cent (+3)
NDP: 26 per cent (+8)
Bloc Quebecois: N/A
Green Party: 10 per cent (-3)
The last SC poll had the Conservatives at 36, Libs 30, NDP 13, Greens 12, Bloc 9.