Saturday, May 05, 2007

New Poll

More good news, unless you're a Conservative:
Stephen Harper's Conservatives have slipped into a virtual tie with the Liberals in support, according to a new Ipsos Reid poll.

The Conservatives command 35% in support among decided voters, compared with 34% for the Liberals, according to the poll, conducted exclusively for Canwest News Service and Global TV.

The NDP sit at 14%, the Bloc Quebecois at 9%, and the Green Party at 7%. Those results are consistent with recent polls, according to Ipsos Reid.

For context, last week's results:
The survey says the Conservatives have 38 per cent support, up two points from the election; the Liberals are up one point to 31 per cent; the NDP is down three points to 14 per cent; the Bloc Quebecois dropped three points to eight per cent, and the Green party is up three points to eight per cent.

And in case anyone doubts the Tory slide, just two weeks ago Ipsos-Reid had the Tories with a full ten point advantage. The Liberals should be pleased to be back in the mid-thirties, it's been awhile.

Things can change, only a snapshot, a week is a year, etc. However, the question now becomes, how low can they go? We all know the Liberal floor, interesting to see if the Tories touch bottom.

Regionals, although I wouldn't put much stock in anything beyond the Quebec and Ontario (both of which are really bad news for Harper) numbers, given the margin of error:

It is widely understood that the Conservatives will have to gain considerable ground in seat-rich Quebec and Ontario to win a majority, but the poll shows the Liberals have widened their lead in Ontario, where they now have 44 per cent in support, compared with 34 per cent for the Conservatives.

The Conservatives lost even more ground in Quebec, where the Grits have vaulted into second place behind the Bloc Quebecois. The Bloc leads with 35 per cent support, followed by the Liberals at 25 per cent and the Conservatives at 20 per cent.

The poll contains the following regional results:

• B.C.: Conservatives 43 per cent (-4), Liberals 32 (+4), NDP 15 (0), Green 10 (+1)

• Alberta: Conservatives 66 (+4), Liberals 20 (+10), NDP 7 (-4), Green 7 (-8)

• Saskatchewan/Manitoba: Conservatives 46 (0), Liberals 25 (+3), NDP 22 (+1), Green 8 (-3)

• Ontario: Conservatives 34 (-6), Liberals 44 (+4), NDP 13 (0), Green 9 (+2)

• Quebec: Bloc 35 (+4), Conservatives 20 (-5), Liberals, 25 (+1), NDP 14 (+2), Green 5 (-1)

• Atlantic Canada: Conservatives 32 (+10), Liberals, 43 (-1), NDP 18 (-4), Green 7 (-1)


Scott Tribe said...

But But But.. Darrell Bricker, head of Ipso, said last week that the Afghanistan controversy had no effect on Tory polling #'s!??

Like you said, he should have waited 1 more poll. I'm also sure Gore and Suzuki condemning the Tory Green Plan Part 2 as a disappointment and a fraud didn't help matters either. Those 2 have weight more credibility on the environment with Canadians then Baird or the Tories do.

Steve V said...

"But But But.. Darrell Bricker, head of Ipso, said last week that the Afghanistan controversy had no effect on Tory polling #'s!??"

At least they was no regional breakdowns? ;)

bigcitylib said...

Actually, there were regional breakdowns in the story, which I've posted. Weird: Libs up 10 in Alberta. Slightly weird: Tories in 3rd in Que. Sad: Greens down almost everywhere.

Scott Tribe said...

The Greens have always been lower in Ipsos-Reid polling as opposed to Decima for example.

Steve V said...

I've added the regionals. BCL, any numbers outside of Quebec and Ontario aren't reliable. Every week brings one or two wild fluctations, last week Harper was up 17% in British Columbia. Ya, okay.

Anonymous said...

You can tell where Harper feels he needs to improve his ratings. This week -B.C. announcing money, money, money.

Watch the polls and you'll see where he drops another bunch of money.

Ontario next?????

ottlib said...

I would not get too excited.

The two issues that lead to the negative polls for the Conservatives have likely run their course.

So we are going to have to wait and see if they have done lasting damage to the government.

If not, we will see the incumbent advantage re-exert itself and they will climb back into the high-30 range again, while the Liberals will fall to the low-30 range, where they have been sitting for over a year.

wayward son said...

Scott "The Greens have always been lower in Ipsos-Reid polling as opposed to Decima for example."

Yes, the Greens have a tendency to consistently poll lower in Ipsos and SES. Whereas they poll well in Decima, Strategic Counsel, Angus Reid and Environics. My hope is that Ipsos-Reid is wrong.

Anonymous said...

another issue this week for the dip in the cons is that people did their last minute tax returns i.e.the ones that have to pay extra like my boys and they found out they had to pay more taxes than when the liberals were in power.

knb said...

When is the poll Gregg referred to supposed to come out Steve, do you know?

Steve V said...

Greg Weston said tomorrow, if that's what you mean, or are you referring to Gregg SC?

knb said...

No I meant Weston, thx.

Anonymous said...

The significant information in this poll is that the Greens are up in the critical Ontario and B.C battlegrounds where they can win seats, and only marginally down (1%) in Quebec and Atlantic Provinces, so I would not read this poll as bad news for them in the least. The only places where they have dropped is Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba which combined only represent 56 seats out of 308.