Tuesday, May 01, 2007

Climate Change Sceptics Are Correct

On of the main criticisms coming from climate change sceptics, revolves around the idea that scientists have put too much faith in unproven computer models. How can you demand great sacrifice, when you put such reliance on a method that can't comprehend the entire picture? My knowledge isn't sophisticated enough to debate the complexities, but even climate change advocates acknowledge that the term "projection" implies a certain degree of imperfection.

It turns out that climate change deniers are correct in their suspicions. The computer models are wrong:
The Arctic ice cap is melting much faster than expected and is now about 30 years ahead of predictions made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a U.S. ice expert said on Tuesday.
This means the ocean at the top of the world could be free or nearly free of summer ice by 2020, three decades sooner than the global panel’s gloomiest forecast of 2050.

Mr. Scambos and co-authors of the study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, used satellite data and visual confirmation of Arctic ice to reach their conclusions, a far different picture than that obtained from computer models used by the scientists of the intergovernmental panel.
“The IPCC report was very careful, very thorough and cautious, so they erred on the side of what would certainly occur as opposed to what might occur,” Mr. Scambos said in a telephone interview.

2 comments:

Monkey Loves to Fight said...

I think the thing with any science or projection is you can never be 100% certain. The question is which path will be more closely. Considering how strong the evidence is and how devastating the impacts would be, the cost of doing nothing is far greater than acting now. In addition 99% certainty, which is probably what it is, is more than enough to say we should take this seriously.

The only flaw in projections is projections say what will happen if we continue to do things the way we are doing things now. If we change our lifestyles, the projections will likely turn out to be false.

Karen said...

Wasn't that frightening?

I hope this doesn't get lost in the news.