Friday, May 11, 2007

Still Falling

You know it's bad, when Ipsos-Reid joins in, and now has the Tories trailing. Last week, Ipsos still had the Tories with 35% support, but the slippage continues:
If an election were held now, the Liberals would have a slight advantage, nationally, at 32%, followed by the Conservatives at 31%, the NDP at 17%, and the Green party at 9%. The poll surveyed 1,000 Canadians and is considered accurate within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Take this finding with a grain of salt, given how volatile Ipsos regional numbers usually are:
The big changes appear to be in the western provinces, where the Conservatives have seen their support drop by 13 percentage points in Alberta and 19 percentage points in British Columbia.

In Alberta, the Tories were standing at 53 per cent support, followed by the Liberals at 25%, the Greens at 11% and the NDP at 9%. In B.C., the NDP surged 15 percentage points to take the lead with 30% support, followed by the Liberals at 29%, the Tories at 24%, and the Greens at 16%.

"While that province [B.C.] tends to be a bit volatile, it's by no mistake that this drop [in support for the Conservatives] comes in probably the most eco-conscious part of the country and right on the heels of the Tory plan," said Wright.

Canadians aren't buying what Baird is spewing :) :
But according to the poll, only 32% of Canadians believed him while 55% said he was "just saying these things to scare people so that the government doesn't have to do things it doesn't want to do."

The poll found that 61% of Canadians believe the Conservative government's proposal "does not go far enough or move with enough urgency to make a meaningful contribution to the global effort to fight climate change.

When asked if they personally believed the plan was a good one, only 40% of respondents answered yes, while 52% said it was "a bad plan."

Greens up 2, NDP up 3, Liberals down 2, Tories down 3 from last week.

I'm particularly pleased to see that Canadians see right through Baird, he's failed to make the case with his bombastic language and juvenile demeanor.

This is the fourth week in a row that Ipsos has the Tories slipping. We all know what the Liberal bottom is, I guess the question, what is the Conservatives?


knb said...

When asked if they personally believed the plan was a good one, only 40% of respondents answered yes

So his base and some stragglers who probably could not tell you what the plan is.

I wonder what the plan is now? Two plans, widely panned, what will they do?

Lie I suppose. That seems to be the ONLY thing that they do really well, oh that and cover up and shut down discourse and divide a nation and arrest people to "scare" civil servants and storm out of committee meetings and....the list is too long.

Okay, they do some things really well. Not one of them is good for the country though.

We are now a laughing stock on the world stage. Way to go!

At least this tells me that Canadians are a hell of lot smarter than Harper thinks they are.

I wonder how the Blogging T's (they aren't tories so I won't write that), will react to this? Spin it of course, but they will have to wait for their lines from their master. We'll see.

(Disclaimer, not all BT's fall into that category.)

Steve V said...

"the list is too long"

Not bad for a NEW government.

knb said...

New does not equal good. They seem to have missed that point.

CfSR said...

I think the most interesting number in the poll is the numbers in Alberta.

Over the past 15 years, Tory vote around 50% province wide puts Edmonton seats, where the Liberal vote is concentrated, into play.

It would sure be embarassing, as an Alberta based PM, to lose Alberta seats to Liberals.

Of course, this is only one poll.

Steve V said...


I can't really put much stock in that Alberta number, because Ipsos regional numbers outside of Quebec and Ontario are erratic at best. Do we really believe the Tories can drop 19% in one week, in B.C ? That's outrageous, no matter the circumstance. The numbers have bounced all over the place in B.C, from week to week, which is why they just stop publishing, until they get a bigger sample size and lower MOE. I don't doubt the Conservatives could be down in Alberta, but 13% points is a freefall, given the time period.

Anonymous said...

Bricker lives in the land of make week his headline will read...tories surge ahead...all bull