Conservatives: 34.8 per cent.
Liberals: 32.6 per cent.
NDP: 14.3 per cent.
Green: 9.3 per cent.
BQ: 9 per cent.
For the most part, the shift in national support seems to be a Ontario consideration. Again on the volatility front, what was a 10% Liberal lead last week has evaporated with the two parties now tied. EKOS, unlike yesterday's Angus Reid poll, doesn't show any NDP rebound at the Liberal expense, their numbers still well down from the last election. EKOS shows the more familiar dynamic of support jockeying between the two principles, the NDP mostly on the sidelines:
Graves mentions a "temporary" circumstance, as Liberals are hurt in the short term, resulting from the strategic misplay. I would tend to agree, but these Ontario numbers show us once again that nobody can take anything for granted, the support SOFT, SOFT, SOFT. When you see wild fluctuations week to week, month to month, it speaks to a large subset that will be up for grabs up until election day.
EKOS actually gives the Conservatives a relatively decent percentage of 18.4%. The Liberals and Bloc virtually unchanged, while the NDP drops further to 7.8%.
From the Liberal perspective, we've clearly reached a sort of plateau phase, wherein the status quo needs a reconsideration. A slightly worrying storyline, with Parliament on break, people less engaged, the lasting impression this summer may well be the events of the past couple weeks. For this reason, apart from theoretical government missteps, it will be hard for the Liberals to re-seize any momentum. In other words, we're probably stuck here until the fall.
I'd also be somewhat concerned about Ignatieff's rising disapproval numbers, for the first time the leader is being challenged. EKOS gave Ignatieff a 50% approval, 28% disapproval just two months ago. Now we see a 32% approval, 37% disapproval. Part of that is a natural dynamic that happens to all new leaders. However, part of that is a reflection of recent events, as well as being attacked from all partisan sides. Whatever, further evidence that it's time to get aggressive in defining Ignatieff and the party.