OTTAWA _ A new poll suggests the Conservatives and Liberals remain locked in a dead heat amid rumblings of a possible fall election. The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey put the parties in a statistical tie, with 32 per cent support for the Liberals and 31 per cent for the Tories. The NDP were at 16 per cent, the Greens at 11, and the Bloc Quebecois at nine. The numbers have barely budged throughout the summer, a period in which voters are typically disengaged. Some Liberals have been pushing for an autumn election while the Tories have been trashing the idea, saying it would hurt the economic recovery. The survey of just over 2,000 respondents was conducted Aug. 13-23 and is considered accurate to within 2.2 percentage points 19 times in 20.
No internals yet, will update later.
I must say, I absolutely LOVE the timing of this poll, on the heels of that stench released yesterday. The "numbers have barely budged", reaffirming what everyone else has concluded. The fact HD gives the Liberals a lead, even if it's statistically irrelevant, is simply delicious on the heels of the Ipsos TURD.
Harris Decima replicates recent Ontario results, Libs hovering around 40%, ahead of the Cons, NDP in trouble:
The Liberals lead in Ontario by six points with the NDP struggling in popular support in the province. The Liberals hold 40%, followed by 34% for the Conservatives, 13% for the NDP and 10% for the Greens.
Quebec shows a weakening Lib vote, and a very poor score for the Cons:
The BQ remains in front in Quebec with 37%, followed by 28% for the Liberals, 12% for the
Conservatives, 11% for the NDP and 10% for the Greens.
Might be a tad low for the Cons, other findings have shown a slight uptick. There's no question the Lib vote has sagged in the province, but it's fluid.
HD also replicates a pretty firm trend in Atlantic Canada, Libs out front:
In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals continue to maintain an advantage. Here the Liberals lead with 38%, followed by the NDP with 32%, the Conservatives 23% and the Greens with 5%
Kind of a goofy result for British Columbia, even with the relative manageable margin of error (two week sample):
The Conservatives lead with 28%, followed by the NDP with 26%, the Greens 24% and the Liberals with 20%.
That Green number is an "eye popper". Very low scores for the Cons and Libs, relative to other recent polls.