Monday, August 10, 2009

Strategic Counsel Poll

The new Strategic Counsel poll is virtually unchanged from their previous poll, but actually better news for the Liberals. July 2 results, then the latest:
Tories 34 34
Liberals 33 32
NDP 15 15
Greens 7 8
Bloc 11 10

SC finds Conservative support up in the "west", which accounts for the steady number, offset by a decline in all important Ontario. Another pollster putting the Liberals in the 40% range:
In Ontario, where the Strategic Counsel found the Tories surging into the lead a month ago, the Conservatives have dropped back six percentage points. The Liberals now hold the edge there, 40 per cent to 37, with the NDP at 14 per cent and the Greens at 9. The smaller survey sample for the province means those results have a 5 per cent error margin.

Early today, I wondered if the Nanos poll that showed NDP support higher was a "one off". This was due to all other pollsters giving them a lower percentage, SC now comes in with a more replicated total. Going back to June, using twelve separate polls from four outfits, the Liberals haven't moved from a very exact 40%, plus or minus one. The consistent score is pretty incredible, given the margin of error.

In Quebec, the poll found the Bloc Québécois still lead handily, with 44-per-cent support. The Liberals were down one percentage point to 30 per cent, the Conservatives also slipped a point to 14 per cent, while the NDP was at 7 and the Greens at 6 per cent. (The margin of error is 6.3 percentage points.)

A strong number for the Bloc. It is noteworthy that SC tends to give them their highest totals, so they might be on the outside of reality. Liberal number is consistent, as is the Conservative number. Nanos gave the NDP a higher total in their poll, SC's result is more in line with other recent findings, particular EKOS will a lower margin of error.

Poll to poll, you would think a 2% gap is ever so slight improvement for the Conservatives, but the Liberals actually look better electorally, given the "west", Ontario offset.

Anyways, pretty much more of the same this summer. I suppose there is another encouraging sign, the conventional wisdom about the summer pause helping the government of the day doesn't appear to be materializing.


Anonymous said...

Harper has always polled better when Parliament isn't sitting ... summer or other breaks. But the Bloc typically do better during elections than the polls would indicate between elections. My prediction is the Bloc will basically hold their own in the seat count next election, with the Tories losing a few and Liberals gaining a few. The biggest problem is that as the economy gets better, particularly in Ontario, Liberals lose their biggest bunch against Harper.

Steve V said...

"Harper has always polled better when Parliament isn't sitting "

That hasn't been the case every summer, and it's not holding true this one either.

As for Ontario, it is interesting, that despite all this talk of recovery, Liberal numbers hold firm. It's not like the province isn't used to voting Liberal, and I wouldn't use last time as indicative of much, so certain assumptions don't hold. Nobody LOVES Harper here, the Liberals always have an "ear".

Anthony said...

except the last election, where the Tories had a complete meltdown in Quebec, the Bloc always goes DOWN during elections

Why do people just make shit up?

Look at all prior elections except for the last one, even after sponsorship, they go down during elections because they dont really stand for anything, except sovereignty and opposition.

If you starve them of a major issue during a campaign, the major federalist party will make up ground during the writ period.

Anonymous said...

Actually Anthony, there have been several times between elections where speculation has been the numbers are so poor for the Bloc that their days may be numbered. Then an election comes and they rally. It hasn't always been the case, so its not a steadfast rule, but typically the Bloc has done better during elections than in between.

ottlib said...

The Bloc always gets new life because of the federalist parties.

After 2000, when Jean Chretien took way more seats than expected the Bloc's polling numbers were brutal. Everybody believed they were on their way out, especially since a very popular Mr. Martin was going to be leading the Liberals the next time.

Then Sponsorship hit and we all know what happened.

Then last year, the Conservatives were polling well against the Bloc with the Liberals being a non-factor. It looked like the Conservatives would make their breakthrough to the detriment of the Bloc.

Then the Conservatives attacked arts and culture and campaigned on a tougher young offenders act. With the Liberals still a non-factor the Bloc benefitted from that stupidity.

Now most polls put the Liberals and the Bloc within spitting distance of each other with the Conservatives being a non-factor. Michael Ignatieff is popular in Quebec. So, provided the Liberals do not do anything stupid the Bloc could find themselves in tough in alot of ridings and we could very well see a decline in their seat count for the first time since 2000.

DL said...

I think its premature to say "Ignatieff is popular" in Quebec. Its clear that he isn't as UNpopular as Dion was, but right now he is very much a blank slate that people can project whatever they want onto. He might do well in Quebec, but then again he might also be a big flop. Right now most Quebecers know next to nothing about him. I remember how Paul Martin was supposed to be wildly popular in Quebec and then he ended up being a big flop and it wasn't just the sponsorship scandal - it was that the more people saw of him, the less they liked - especially in Quebec.

Steve V said...


Well it was, clearly, mostly the sponsorshop scandal, but I take your point.

As for Ignatieff, you're right, he's not defined. I'll take that, potential wise, over Harper who is now such a known and unpopular commodity, he has nowhere to go.