Tories 34 34
Liberals 33 32
NDP 15 15
Greens 7 8
Bloc 11 10
SC finds Conservative support up in the "west", which accounts for the steady number, offset by a decline in all important Ontario. Another pollster putting the Liberals in the 40% range:
In Ontario, where the Strategic Counsel found the Tories surging into the lead a month ago, the Conservatives have dropped back six percentage points. The Liberals now hold the edge there, 40 per cent to 37, with the NDP at 14 per cent and the Greens at 9. The smaller survey sample for the province means those results have a 5 per cent error margin.
Early today, I wondered if the Nanos poll that showed NDP support higher was a "one off". This was due to all other pollsters giving them a lower percentage, SC now comes in with a more replicated total. Going back to June, using twelve separate polls from four outfits, the Liberals haven't moved from a very exact 40%, plus or minus one. The consistent score is pretty incredible, given the margin of error.
In Quebec, the poll found the Bloc Québécois still lead handily, with 44-per-cent support. The Liberals were down one percentage point to 30 per cent, the Conservatives also slipped a point to 14 per cent, while the NDP was at 7 and the Greens at 6 per cent. (The margin of error is 6.3 percentage points.)
A strong number for the Bloc. It is noteworthy that SC tends to give them their highest totals, so they might be on the outside of reality. Liberal number is consistent, as is the Conservative number. Nanos gave the NDP a higher total in their poll, SC's result is more in line with other recent findings, particular EKOS will a lower margin of error.
Poll to poll, you would think a 2% gap is ever so slight improvement for the Conservatives, but the Liberals actually look better electorally, given the "west", Ontario offset.
Anyways, pretty much more of the same this summer. I suppose there is another encouraging sign, the conventional wisdom about the summer pause helping the government of the day doesn't appear to be materializing.