The Liberal vote is actually pretty consistent, EKOS weekly poll has had them hovering at 32%, with one exception (last week), since June. The Conservative vote is higher than previous polls, and can mostly be attributed to the last day of the four day poll where they captured an objectively suspicious 40% score. Apart from that, nothing really to see here, more of the same.
The NDP are set to hold their convention, and it's a good thing. The numbers are bad, the regionals more concerning. Eric calculates these results and comes up with a lowly 18 seats for the NDP. Each percentage point is critical to the NDP, so fluffing off a minor movement is done without much consideration. On a side note, as someone who recently attended the Seinfeld convention, I must say the NDP pre-hype looks strangely familar. About all I've heard is this incredibly navel gazing exercise about a new name, and people like Lavigne telling that the convention is really about election prepardedness. Not exactly "kitchen table" stuff- while I'm sure there is some policy, seems to be backburner. Anyways, I hope all my NDP friends enjoy the nothingness, I know I did :)
Ontario has been a pretty volatile affair in the past months. That might be changing somewhat, with encouraging signs for the Liberals that there vote is firming up. The Liberal vote in Ontario has been incredibly consistent lately, holding steady at 39%, time after time. The Conservatives are vacillating somewhat, the NDP barely a low third (this time tied with the Greens).
This poll also finds 15% of voters are undecided, about 10% of which voted in the last election. That fact alone speaks to how crucial the campaign will be, in a tight race the "break" will be key.
The pollster wonders if the Green vote will hold, and while I would expect an uptick from 2008 as realistic, it's fair to wonder if some of it moves during a campaign. Interestingly, the Liberals are the top second choice of Green voters, followed by the NDP, then the Conservatives. Particularly in Ontario, where the Greens score 12.4%, any erosion could be terribly important.