Thursday, August 06, 2009

New EKOS Poll

The latest EKOS poll shows more slight back and forth movement, this time the Conservatives recapture the lead:
Cons 34.9%
Libs 31.9%
NDP 13.8%
Greens 10.8%

The Liberal vote is actually pretty consistent, EKOS weekly poll has had them hovering at 32%, with one exception (last week), since June. The Conservative vote is higher than previous polls, and can mostly be attributed to the last day of the four day poll where they captured an objectively suspicious 40% score. Apart from that, nothing really to see here, more of the same.

The NDP are set to hold their convention, and it's a good thing. The numbers are bad, the regionals more concerning. Eric calculates these results and comes up with a lowly 18 seats for the NDP. Each percentage point is critical to the NDP, so fluffing off a minor movement is done without much consideration. On a side note, as someone who recently attended the Seinfeld convention, I must say the NDP pre-hype looks strangely familar. About all I've heard is this incredibly navel gazing exercise about a new name, and people like Lavigne telling that the convention is really about election prepardedness. Not exactly "kitchen table" stuff- while I'm sure there is some policy, seems to be backburner. Anyways, I hope all my NDP friends enjoy the nothingness, I know I did :)

Ontario has been a pretty volatile affair in the past months. That might be changing somewhat, with encouraging signs for the Liberals that there vote is firming up. The Liberal vote in Ontario has been incredibly consistent lately, holding steady at 39%, time after time. The Conservatives are vacillating somewhat, the NDP barely a low third (this time tied with the Greens).

This poll also finds 15% of voters are undecided, about 10% of which voted in the last election. That fact alone speaks to how crucial the campaign will be, in a tight race the "break" will be key.

The pollster wonders if the Green vote will hold, and while I would expect an uptick from 2008 as realistic, it's fair to wonder if some of it moves during a campaign. Interestingly, the Liberals are the top second choice of Green voters, followed by the NDP, then the Conservatives. Particularly in Ontario, where the Greens score 12.4%, any erosion could be terribly important.


Anonymous said...

All this is trouble. Harper is going to get some benefit from the economy recovering. If things continue on this course it will be another Conservative majority.

Anonymous said...

Sorry, another Conservative minority.

Demosthenes said...

The NDP is in a different position than the Liberals, Steve.

The NDP broadly knows what they stand for—-social democracy--and broadly understands the constituencies they are attempting to reach and convert. Sure, they may or may not be successful, but nobody is going to accuse the New Democratic Party of lacking policy.

The Liberals, on the other hand, are seen as a power-obsessed chimaera that is either unwilling or unable to take a stand on damned near anything, and has the vacant policy portfolio to back it up. The lack of any real policy discussion is a really really really big problem for them.

And, again, the fact that the Liberals aren't going anywhere, or leading the polls to begin with, is a big source of concern. They should be dominant right now, considering the recession, Harper's mistakes, the strong brand and their new leader. That they're mired at a historical basement suggests that serious change is needed...

...and not the kind you get by putting a new face on the same old platitudes.

Steve V said...

"That they're mired at a historical basement suggests that serious change is needed..."

If you can't even be intellectually honest, then what's the point?? We're up 7% from our historical basement, the government down 5%, a 12% swing since 2008. Honestly man, cobble together something coherent, because when you warp reality, it just makes you look like a biased crank.

BTW, your defence of the NDP focusing on a name change as their primary concern is pretty weak.

Tomm said...


As you know I am not in the habit of defending the LPC.

However being the Seinfeld Party always has the advantage of flexibility, currency, and ability to fill their sails with the winds of popularity.

The "New" DP is still trying to sell 1960's collectivist peacenik unionism. Talk about a millstone...

jarrid said...

I'm with Demosthenes here. A case in point is that the Liberals jumped on the environmnent bandwagon and now that things have cooled on that front you have Iggy defending the tar sands for pete's sake.

Kyoto? Should it be implemented?

Green Shift/Carbon Tax? Yesterday's policy?