Thursday, August 20, 2009

New EKOS Poll

The latest EKOS poll pegs NDP support at it highest level since the last election:
Cons 32.8%
Libs 30.2%
NDP 17.3%
Greens 11.0%

In addition, this is also the lowest Liberal percentage for any EKOS poll since the 2008 election. Despite this fact, the Liberals are still quite close to the Conservatives. This suggests neither party really has much wind in their sails. On top of that, while the NDP number is relatively strong, it's still below their 2008 percentage. What this poll basically shows, nobody is doing particularly well, each looks vulnerable. That's a rarity with polls, but if one can crow I suppose it's the NDP, who seem to have benefitted from more coverage each of the past two weeks.

In Ontario, the Liberals have consistently held 39-42% on almost every poll for quite some time now. This poll puts the Liberals slightly down, and the NDP seem to benefit, although the numbers are still less than impressive:
Cons35.4%

Libs 36.3%

NDP 15.9%

Greens 12.4%

Another strong result for the Greens in Ontario, percentages high enough that the other parties best take notice. If there is any erosion in that vote come election time, the party that can attract soft support will be well placed. I would catergorize this vote as essential for the Liberals, if they hope to pickup enough seats in Ontario to form government.

The pollster gives the Liberals a strong showing in British Columbia, leading with 32%. Liberals down to 27% in Quebec, Bloc 35%.

11 comments:

DL said...

If I was the Tories, I would be a bit concerned about that 11% Green vote. Its clear that its a gross exaggeration of what that party will actually and that in reality the 6.7% they got last time was probably as good as it will ever get for them. Where will they go? Everywhere but Tory!

Some will go Liberal, some will go NDP and a lot won't vote at all seeing as that vote is so heavily concentrated among people under 25 who have a low turn out.

My suspicion has always been that a lot of the Green "mirage" vote is made up of people who know that they don't like the Tories but aren't sure which of the opposition parties to vote for.

Anonymous said...

Look for the Tories to force a fall vote. These are winning conditions for Harper. He may never get a better chance at a majority.

Joseph said...

Somebody's dreaming

DL said...

Let's keep in mind that this past week has been a relatively good one for Harper with daily reports about his igloo to igloo journey through the Arctic while the Liberals have been off the radar.

When Parliament is not in session there is a simple formula - you make news (ie: touring the Arctic or having a convention) - you gain ground in the polls. You don't make news - you lose ground. I'm not sure that it all means much.

Steve V said...

The Conservative numbers haven't moved.

anon

Admitting you have a problem is half the battle.

DL said...

Maybe a fairer analysis is that the Tories are really not doing all that well considering that they have had a week of nothing but splashy photo ops in the Arctic while the Liberals have been invisible.

Steve V said...

Further to this "majority" talk, I think it's a mistake that the Cons are now using this argument. We've seen time and again, since Harper first took office, as soon as voters sense a Con majority their numbers come back down. Further to that, the polls also show little support for a Con majority, much less than a Lib one. If Harper wants to play this "stability" card now, it could prove a massive mistake.

Gene Rayburn said...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tories-changing-election-tune-to-stress-majority/article1258188/

Steve V said...

Gene

Just did a post on this topic.

Northern PoV said...

Yawn

this is so consistent with both election results and in-between-election polls for the past 4 years.

the little variances mean nothing - just like our current crop of politicians

Steve V said...

"this is so consistent with both election results"

Yes, it's only a 10% swing since the last election. Maybe the yawning is affecting your arithmetic, unless a 60 seat swing is meaningless in your world. The reality in Canadian politics every percentage is magnified, which is why the marginal becomes significant.