Thursday, September 17, 2009

More Of The Same

The weekly EKOS poll confirms the basic trend, Conservatives opening up a outside of MOE lead, renewed strength in Ontario:
shows the Tories with 35.1 per cent support, followed by the Liberals with 29.9 per cent. The New Democratic Party followed with 16.5 per cent, the Bloc Quebecois with 9.6 per cent and the Green Party with 9 per cent.

The Conservative lead increased slightly from last week’s poll, which saw the Tories with 34.2 per cent of support and the Liberals with 30.8 per cent. The NDP rose from 14.8 per cent, the Bloc slipped from 10 per cent, and the Green Party slipped from 10.1 per cent.

A slight uptick for the NDP, maybe capitulation is a winning strategy? I suspect it's just statistical noise, but latch on if need be :)
In Ontario, EKOS gives the Conservatives an edge:
Cons 40.1%
Libs 35.5%
NDP 16.5%
Greens 9%

Another poll pegging Con support above 40%, and further evidence that the Liberal vote is slipping. It's fair to say, the Liberals lost the PR battle in Ontario. It's also a testament to how soft support moves easily in Ontario. In the past months, we've seen a GENERALLY consistent picture of Libs 40%, Cons low to mid 30's. Prior to that, Ontario was up and down like a yoyo. The question now, is this a temporary Con uptick, or a real trend that holds. I still think the former, but we'll see.

No real movement anywhere else. In Quebec:
Bloc 38.9%
Libs 27.1%
Cons 16%
NDP 10.5%
Greens 7.6%

Liberals with a healthy lead in Atlantic Canada, but they've fallen into the mid 20's in B.C. EKOS had shown some previous strength in B.C., but now the Liberals run a close third.

On the question of what type of government Canadians prefer, another poll gives the Liberals the edge, although it isn't massive. 39.4% would prefer some type of Liberal government, while 35.9% want a Conservative government. A full 24.7% want neither, which is significant.

12 comments:

Gayle said...

Could the BC results be related to the HST? For that matter, could the Ontario results relate to that as well?

Mark Francis said...

Summers are easier on government.

And Gayle has a point: There is a portion of the population who confuses the federal with the provincial, and there are also those who choose to.

DL said...

I think it may well be that some of the Ontario numbers are a function of the McGuinty government getting a lot of bad press these days. I also suspect that the Tory character assassination ads against Iggy have been played A LOT in Ontario over the time this poll was in field.

I don't think why anyone is surprised that when asked if they wants a Conservative or Liberal minority or majority government - 25% say neither. Right now about 35% of Canadians plan to vote for a party other than the Grits or Tories (ie: NDP, BQ, Green or other) and those people resent questions like this that force them to make a false choice.

DL said...

Let's not forget that Ignatieff has "reassured" McGuinty that if he forms a government, the HST agreement with the federal Tories will continue - so any Liberal attempt to cal the HST the "Harper sales Tax" have fallen apart.

Joseph said...

I agree with Gayle on the BC observation. The Provincial Liberals are really getting hammered now. Budget cuts skewed at schools, public libraries while moving the HST, the government selling it as a business benefit.

I'd say the federal NDP bounce here in BC and the Liberal decline is as much a sign of the Provincial "name" sentiments as anything.

When Federal Parties report fundraising, are they also required to report funds on hand? I know the conservatives have had an advantage for a while, but my god they must be bleeding money. I can't escape their ads right now.

Or are they getting special rock-bottom rates on CTV? I'm somewhat serious in asking that. When the government starts being responsible for bailing out media outlets, makes you wonder what gratitude is returned.

Regarding the numbers themselves, I still think it's a good place to start a campaign. Parliament is back in session, and the crap is already hitting the fan again on actual government performance versus campaign readiness. And, again, one is visibly suffering.

If the NDP has basically agreed to support the government until money flows from the changes being voted on Friday, how long until Harper pushes that envelope? What else will the NDP be backing now that they've give a blank check. And how does one reconcile a short leash with that kind of blanket statement?

DL said...

BTW: The BC numbers in this Ekos poll would represent almost an exact return to the popular vote of the three parties in the 2006 election. That would mean a Conservative loss of four or five seats.

Joseph said...

That's a good point on the BC NDP vote, DL. I do suspect the conservatives would have a hard time holding all of their seats here in BC again.

I do have to admit John Weston, as much as he bugs me, is being smart on his approach to his constituents.

He pushes his own promotions like "display the Canadian Flag Day" that give me south-of-the-border shivers. I love the Maple Leaf, but organized patriotism pushed by politicians is a big part of the "real America" cat fights on display down south so it gives me the heebie-jeebies when a pol takes up the cause in such a self-identified way. Yet I have to admit it probably reassures his base.

Yet he also organized a presentation in Whistler on Federal cultural contributions and mechanisms so that local arts and cultural leaders could meet federal counterparts in person. He seems to recognize he lives in a mixed riding, and works at touching base with both.

I never hear a peep out of Dona Cadman, whose riding is even closer. Nada. She was the candidate who didn't even attend most of the debates and community presentations during the last election. I know she must have her base and long-time supporters of her husband. But I find it strange that she's like a blank slate most of the time except for being a relliable conservative vote.

All conservative members are getting the boost of federal funds, and I expect that's true out here in BC as well. I hope the Liberal brain trust is busy tracking conservative stimulus spending in their ridings versus anyone else, as was recently displayed so vividly for Nova Scotia on Highway project funds distribution.

I can't shake this sense that federal expenditures are a growing pit that will continue to expand. I suspect the dragging of feet in starting some of the mega-projects is a cost-savings measure so more candy-tossing can occur in winnable ridings. But I don't have the time or energy to pursue that kind of exercise. Here's hoping someone is doing so. It would be interesting to see.

MississaugaPeter said...

Mark Francis,

The HST is on the radar of VERY FEW people in Ontario. As implementation date approaches (9+ months), there will be an increase in B.C.-like real or imagined anxiety.

The HST noise will hurt the Federal Liberals in Ontario, since this province is notorious for electing opposing parties at the Federal and Provincial levels - while the Liberals were in power federally, the Conservatives were in power provincially (Trudeau-Davis, Mulroney-Peterson/Rae, Chretien-Harris, Harper-McGuinty) and vice-versa.

leftdog said...

This nonstop talk by Libs about NDP 'hypocrisy' just got nuked by IGGY ... who is going not going to oppose Harper on EI reform!

Joseph said...

Actually it doesn't remove the hypocrisy at all. The hypocrisy existed outside anything the Liberals might or might not actually say about it.

You can spin all you want but you ABSOLUTELY know that if the Liberals had made this same statement 2 weeks ago, Layton would have been knocking people over to get to a microphone to denounce the sell-out.

Very rarely have I felt confidence in stating something without ANY doubt whatsoever. Anyone who thinks otherwise has blinders on so tight it's effecting their thinking.

Now the Liberals won't have to vote against the home tax credit and "paltry" (that's the NDP description, btw) improvements to EI, which they would have been slammed for as well and served as fodder for the next round of attack ads.

It's a smart move. Now they can up the ante by press for speedy implementation of the changes.

Tof KW said...

Joseph, I fully agree with your comments on conservative MPs getting a boost thanks to federal funds. Sadly this shtick works on people gullible enough to forget they're being bought by their own tax dollars. And to be non-partisan, I will admit the Grits played this game before too. Jean Chr├ętien made sure Quebec voters knew that Liberal ridings were getting more federal funds versus the ones that kept voting for the Bloc - and I also admit I liked that strategy.

But I will make a bold prediction about all this stimulus spending. A number of protocols and fail-safes are being, well, shall I say 'bent' in order to get these funds out to the various ridings ASAP. And I think people here are fully aware of the inevitable consequences when a national emergency requires federal moneys to go flying out the door to try to solve the problem, without the regular checks & balances being applied.

Rest assured, there will be millions and millions of dollars in stimulus spending that will be going into ‘questionable’ hands once this is all accounted for.
Oh look it’s already starting:
http://impolitical.blogspot.com/2009/09/boondoggle-in-guergis-riding.html

What the Liberals need to do now is track down every single instance like this across the country, and find out what tied the parties involved have to the CPC (because you know they do) and make sure the media knows about this too. Eventually Sheila Fraser and Kevin Page will be on this, and soon enough Harper will have his own version of ‘Adscam’ to deal with. I personally look forward to watching the federal Conservatives self-destruct all over again, with the added bonus of knowing the western populists did it this time (versus the red tories).

Steven said...

Tof KW:

And we know that the CPC has lots of dirty bed-linens just waiting to be found. It will be fun to watch.