Tuesday, September 08, 2009

Nanos Poll

Just a tidbit from tomorrow's Nanos poll, and the numbers don't look particularly good for the Liberals:
The Nanos poll put the Conservatives at 37.5 percent of committed voters and the Liberals at 33.4 percent. A month earlier it had the Liberals ahead by 2.5 points.

It put the NDP at 14.8 percent, the Bloc at 9.7 percent and the Greens at 4.6 percent. However, it found one in four voters were now undecided, up from one out of six.

Nanos surveyed 1,003 Canadians from August 28 to September 3

It's been awhile since I've seen Nanos give the Conservatives such a high national score. The last Nanos had it 34-31% for the Liberals, NDP at 19%. The Liberal vote is consistent, but that's a noticeable bounce for the Conservatives- one has to assume a good result in Ontario. Whatever, this is the type of change poll to poll that you take notice of, although I'm not particularly fazed on the Liberal election decision.

I'll post more tomorrow or later, if it becomes available.


√Čric said...

Where did you get this?

Dan said...

The numbers don't look particularly bad either. Polls go up and down, and while a deficit in polls might create an annoying media narrative for a couple of days larger obstacles have been overcome. There'll probably be a bad ekos and crop poll too, and who knows what Ipsos will say. Full steam ahead!

Besides, 33% is seven points higher than our last election result and 37 percent for the Conservatives is no change. Winning elections wouldn't be fun if they weren't challenging.

********************Donas Kim Leaman said...

It's early days!

To early to give much Credence to the polls.

"Our secret Weapon.......His (meaning Harper's) Record"
Michael Ignatieff Sept, 1st, 2009

as I am so fond of Nursery Rhymes, and the story of Humpty Dumpty always gives me hope, I will just add.

Stephen Harper will have a "Great Fall".

Yessir Early days!

CanadianSense said...

Donas you might have cofused the who the story was written about.

Toronto Star Feb 8, 2009

Humpty Dumpty's lesson for Ignatieff

A Liberal strategist called me last week reciting this nursery rhyme: "Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall; Humpty Dumpty had a great fall. All the King's horses and all the King's men, couldn't put Humpty together again!"

I didn't understand this lyrical introduction, but he explained that he was referring to Michael Ignatieff's statement about allowing some Liberal MPs to break party solidarity on a "one-time pass." Angelo Persichilli


Steve V said...

"The numbers don't look particularly bad either."

No they don't in the grand scheme.


Gene Rayburn said...

Oh please Canadiansense, I wouldn't trust Persichilli to write a TV Guide correctly...

Lizt. said...

this just out....Harper to Stoke fear of Opposition coalition , again..is he insane?

Steve V said...

They think it's a winner. I guarantee those poll numbers in January are in the memory banks and they think they can recreate the anxiety. Plus, there's this frustration with minorities out there. I can see this blowing up in their faces big time.

Here's the deal. The Conservatives really, really don't want an election, so take that above the polls as indicative. I've never seen this posture from them since they took power, so it speaks volumes. Today we have the "just visiting" ads airing again, talk of coalitions, sounds like not much new coming from the war room. You look back, we're looking forward, like our chances.

Joseph said...

I think these are good numbers. If that is the accurate reading of committed numbers, I have more confidence at the Liberals to attract more of the undecided voters than the conservatives as a campaign unfolds.

I just think if Ignatieff and the Liberals are holding above 30 at this point with all the rhetoric being tossed around, that is a very good sign once the election gets underway.

Election execution is key, but it just seems the Liberals are better prepared all around this time.

Joseph said...

sorry, should have said "committed voters" (not committed numbers ;).

I also have confidence in the Liberals, not at them.

must not type and click send so fast in the future ;)

Gayle said...

Sense - do you do anything aside from dredging up old news articles and asking questions?

I look forward to the day you actually state your point.

In any event, despite predictions of dire consequences from your cohorts in BT land, that little episode does not seem to have stuck.

DL said...

Its always interesting to pick apart the polls but when all is said and done - I think that everything will hinge of what actually happens during the campaign itself.

CanadianSense said...

Gayle I was providing another blogger a different source for a Humpty Dumpty Story.

Gayle I am not too worried about the polls.

Gayle I have no problem with a campaign this November.

I am not a card carrying lifer for the CPC.

I am glad the Liberal Party has pushed the NDP and Bloc.

The Liberals stand to gain seats at the Bloc and NDP expense. Some polls show 20-30 seats.

I look forward to the voters passing their judgement again.

I will not blame my leader, MSM, other parties.

57% of the ridings already decided excluding Quebec.

Will the Liberal be able to polarize the vote between the two major parties like they did in Ontario?


will the left vote be divided again.

I am not predicting ANY growth in the overall vote.

Steve V said...

"I am not predicting ANY growth in the overall vote."

Ya, but you're clueless, so...

Go away k?

Jon Pertwee said...

"I am not predicting ANY growth in the overall vote."

Who cares?

Steve V said...

It's funny, isn't it.