Con. 33% (34%)
Lib. 32% (30%)
NDP 19% (18%)
Greens 7% (9%)
AR is similar to EKOS, in that it gives the Liberals an edge in Ontario, although smaller:
There's that 40% number again, which confirms a return to previous form for the Liberals. Also noteworthy, the number looks even better when one considers a relatively weak NDP number. The Conservatives benefit from vote splitting in Ontario, and the Liberals can capture NDP seats if they are weakened. Still, a tight race, but encouraging.
In Quebec, again similar numbers to EKOS:
A good result for the Liberals, furthering the view that our bottom looks to be 30%, with potential.
What is particularly fascinating about this poll, Canadians are decidedly against an election:
32% support the opposition parties
toppling the Conservative government;
57% are opposed
One would think, a poll that shows decided resistance to an election would translate to diminishing fortunes for the party that is the impetus. Not in this case, which makes the Liberal numbers all the more fascinating.
I don't want to overstate these numbers, they translate to no certainty for the Liberals in the least. That said, two polls now that show improved fortunes for the Liberals just as we ramp up our pre-writ presentation. I'm good with the narrative that we have some small momentum, coming off the summer lull. It's ideal in terms of optics, and it dampens all the hysteria.