The survey, conducted by Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail, puts Conservative support at 35 per cent of voters. The Liberals are at 30 per cent. The NDP are at 14, the Greens at 9 and the Bloc Québécois at 12.
Not really much upward movement in the Conservative number, it's the Liberal wane that explains the 5% margin.
People that are predisposed will automatically infer their own "want" onto this poll, but anybody with a sense of objectivity should look at this number with suspicion:
Strategic Counsel has put out a few "boner" results for Quebec in the past couple years, I'm prepared to put this one in that folder. As the pollster points out, this is the highest score for the Bloc since 2004. This number also bears absolutely NO resemblance to anything, anybody else has put out. On top of that, the Liberal number is much lower than we've seen, compared to other SC polls, this explains the sudden gap in national support. I'd also put the NDP at the low end. In other words, if one is being fair, I wouldn't put much stock into this result and/or use to further a thesis about the election speculation. Let the "outlier" rest quietly, lest your lust fool you.
The Ontario numbers look reasonable, the two principles tied:
In Ontario, the two major parties are more or less tied (Conservatives 41, Liberals 39) with NDP support at a limp 11 per cent, two points ahead of the Greens
A relatively good result for the Conservatives, Liberal percentage similar to recent findings.
I find this quote hard to believe really:
“The NDP support is close to what it was in the last election. It's 14,” Mr. Donolo said. “They need to decrease that number to 10.”
Part of an argument to say the Liberals haven't polarized the vote, this deduction is nonsensical. Their own poll shows the NDP at a "limp" 11% in Ontario, which is pure death if it were true. Last time I checked, the NDP received 18% in the federal election, and haven't been as low as 14% in some time. I wouldn't expect the NDP to go to 10% nationally, under any circumstance. A silly assertion, particularly when the numbers actually speak to the polarization he speaks about. What are you talking about?
I put SC, just above Ipsos on the reliability/accuracy scale. Which is why, as a Liberal I sleep soundly tonight. Remember this Quebec result, from SC, only a few months ago: