Thursday, September 03, 2009

Slight Improvement

The latest EKOS poll offers the Liberals some relative optimism. This poll does capture part of the Liberal caucus retreat drama, as well as the lead up speculation of an election. This poll gives the Liberals the highest level of support they've seen from EKOS, dating back 6 polls. Given what is occuring, that fact is mildly noteworthy:
This week, the Liberals have erased a small but persistent lead enjoyed by the Conservatives in recent weeks by improving their fortunes in the crucial battleground of Ontario.

On the optics front, this one result comes with caution, but it suggests the Liberals aren't suffering from election speculation, a dynamic we've seen before. It also might simply be a function of actual news coverage, something the Liberals haven't enjoyed in weeks.

The Ontario numbers provide good news for the Liberals, as they've erased the recent erosion trend, back up to 40%:
Libs 40.4%
Cons 33.1%
NDP 15.6%
Greens 10.9%

Those numbers represent a return what we were seeing for a couple months, prior to this period of declining fortunes.

We also see a pretty good result in Quebec:
Bloc 32.3%
Libs 30.9%
Cons 19.4%
NDP 9.8%
Greens 7.6%

A low number for the Bloc, a relatively strong one for the Liberals. Maybe some evidence that the slow Liberal slide in Quebec has stopped or stabilizing. There were rumors yesterday, that the Liberals plan a very targeted campaign in Quebec, focusing on 8-12 "winnable" ridings. That seems like a wise strategy, that's realistic and doable. These type of numbers support that strategy.

I was curious to see what EKOS would come out with, as people's attention starts to refocus. This poll does nothing to dampen election speculation, even if the outcome would clearly be in doubt. The fact it comes with some inclusion of the Liberal's new position, is a slightly encouraging sign.


JimmE said...

I fear this means that some honourable (sic) members will be AWOL when any confidence vote is taken.

Steve V said...

Maybe more important than these slight movements, is the fact the media seem to be reacting with a "Liberals rebounding" flavor.

CanadianSense said...

This Poll was done before the Sudbury decision.

Want to compare the standing of the Liberals in Ontario under Dion in Ontario Quebec same Pollster?

Any prediction or blame when the next Poll shows a big drop again that captures the Liberal election threat?


Steve V said...

Check your math, before you spout. August 31 and Sept 1 are captured in this poll. Liberals gathered on the first day, amid all the speculation, he announced the next. You'll also note I said "does capture PART".

You sound like a Con apologist. Oooh.

RuralSandi said...

This, before some "real" news trickles in

Bernier and really important documents left that could affect Canada's security

MacKay - conflict of interest - ah, he didn't remember he sits on the board of directors of two of his dad's companies.

Hey, and parliament isn't even in session yet.

Yup, summer time and the living is easy for Harper is soon coming to an end.

We all know that Harper does better when parliaments out and he's handing out money and doing photo ops.

Gene Rayburn said...

CanadianSense sounds worried...