This week, the Liberals have erased a small but persistent lead enjoyed by the Conservatives in recent weeks by improving their fortunes in the crucial battleground of Ontario.
On the optics front, this one result comes with caution, but it suggests the Liberals aren't suffering from election speculation, a dynamic we've seen before. It also might simply be a function of actual news coverage, something the Liberals haven't enjoyed in weeks.
The Ontario numbers provide good news for the Liberals, as they've erased the recent erosion trend, back up to 40%:
Those numbers represent a return what we were seeing for a couple months, prior to this period of declining fortunes.
We also see a pretty good result in Quebec:
A low number for the Bloc, a relatively strong one for the Liberals. Maybe some evidence that the slow Liberal slide in Quebec has stopped or stabilizing. There were rumors yesterday, that the Liberals plan a very targeted campaign in Quebec, focusing on 8-12 "winnable" ridings. That seems like a wise strategy, that's realistic and doable. These type of numbers support that strategy.
I was curious to see what EKOS would come out with, as people's attention starts to refocus. This poll does nothing to dampen election speculation, even if the outcome would clearly be in doubt. The fact it comes with some inclusion of the Liberal's new position, is a slightly encouraging sign.