Friday, July 20, 2007

A Weakened Hamas?

Fascinating poll of Gaza residents, that show Hamas doesn't enjoy the support of the people it now rules. Some highlights:
69% of Gazans said that the Hamas take-over of last month was

64% of Gazans hold the view that the Fateh strategy is the best for
maximizing Palestinian national interest.

56% of Gazans are of the opinion that the emergency government
is proceeding on the right path.

65% would support early elections.

If elections were held today, 45% of Gazans would vote for Fateh,22% would vote for Hamas, and 8% would vote for other Palestinian factions. 25% would not participate in these elections.

84% would support Fateh in future elections if it reforms itself. This
is the case for 99% of Fateh supporters, and, strikingly, 60% of
Hamas supporters.

It is noteworthy, that despite electing Hamas legislators, the majority of Gaza residents support the emergency government. It would appear that Hamas is on the wane, in the Gaza Strip, despite, or maybe because, of the takeover. With Abbas enjoying international support (except for Canada), and demonstrating the ability to deliver concrete concessions, Fatah becomes more attractive. With Gaza effectively cutoff, it is hard to see Hamas maintaining their iron grip in the long run. These numbers suggest a backlash in waiting.


The Mound of Sound said...

I have enough problems giving credence to Canadian polls. In Gaza? Give me a break. Don't forget, the West favoured democracy for the Palestinians because they were convinced Fatah would trounce Hamas.

Steve V said...

"In Gaza? Give me a break."


Steve V said...

"I have enough problems giving credence to Canadian polls"

Is that a fact?. I'm not declaring a poll, with limited range, as absolute. But, it is a piece of evidence, a tool to get a feel.

Anh Khoi Do said...

As for the poll, I do have some reservation. However, with these stats that provide a part of the fact, we can see that Gazans (if not most Palestinians) are starting to see that the Hamas is just a political party full of populists who don't care about the interests of Palestinians. In fact, the Hamas' fat streak of violence and its refusal to recognize Israel tells us how much it wants Palestinians to stop living in a no man's land...

Canadian Tar Heel said...

Nice catch, Steve.

And for the record, even if one must treat polls with a skeptical eye, they're difficult to dismiss outright, since they may still be indicative of public opinion. In other words, I REALLY appreciate your posts about polls.

Steve V said...

tar heel

Until someone comes up with a better way to get a flavor, I'm okay with polling, potential warts and all.