Friday, November 09, 2007

New Ipsos Poll

These numbers should make Conservative hearts flutter:
Fuelled by unprecedented support in Quebec, the federal Conservative party has zoomed to 42 per cent support among decided voters, a high water mark that puts Prime Minister Stephen Harper closer to his goal of winning a majority government, a new national Ipsos-Reid poll says.

The survey said that while the Tories were up three points from last week, the Liberals remained stuck 14 points back with the support of 28 per cent of voters. The NDP rebounded two points to 15 per cent and the Green party held steady at seven per cent.

For the first time, the Tories were tied with the normally dominant Bloc Quebecois. Each party had the support of 31 per cent of the decided voters. The Liberals trailed at 23 per cent, although they were up six points from last week. The NDP had the support of 10 per cent, and the Green party five per cent.

Whoa, quite the change from last week's poll:
Ipsos- Bloc 50%...Cons 22%...Libs 17%...NDP 7%

If you eliminate last week's head scratcher, the poll from two weeks ago shows continuity:
In Quebec, the Bloc leads with the support of 34% of Quebecers (9% nationally), which represents a decrease of 2 points within Quebec since last week, while the Conservatives are not far behind at 30% support (an increase of 4 points in Quebec). The Liberals have the support of just 16% of Quebecers (decrease of 3 points), and the NDP trails at 13% support (increase of 1 point). The Green Party has the support of 7% of Quebecers (unchanged).

Ontario, still the only outfit that shows the Tories in the lead, but the gap has narrowed:
The poll is not void, however, of good news for the Liberals. They are running second to the Conservatives in Ontario, and are "still in the game" in that pivotal province, Bricker said. They climbed two points to 36 per cent, while the Tories dropped to 40 per cent from 43 per cent, the poll said. The NDP slipped one point to 13 per cent and the Green party moved up to 10 per cent from eight per cent.

British Columbia (high MOE):
In British Columbia, the Conservatives continued to hold a strong lead over their competition with 43 per cent support. The NDP climbed nine points to 27 per cent, while the Liberals dropped to 24 per cent from 28 per cent.

I'm actually prepared to buy the Quebec numbers as reasonable, primarily because they mirror the extensive CROP survey of the province. I'm less inclined to believe the national numbers, because they are completely out of whack, relative to all the other firms. Some would argue the ability to replicate, but I prefer to see another independent example to reaffirm the spread. Having said that, the trends within this poll are objectively positive for the Conservatives, so there is certainly room to crow.

One interesting comment:
"They are in majority territory, but it's not comfortable," Bricker said of the Conservatives. The Tories lopsided support in Alberta and rural Canada means its national support has to reach 45 per cent before the party can seriously consider itself in the running for a majority mandate.


Anonymous said...

I'm assuming Layton should be pretty happy with Harper's numbers.

Anonymous said...

The questions Ipsos asks to prospective voters lead to the numbers in favour of the Cons.

At the same time, the provincial numbers are flawed, especially Quebec (50 per cent last week????).

I will attribute this bounce to Flaherty's financial statement. Next week will be different.

Oxford County Liberals said...

Ipsos has always given the Cons. higher numbers - they had them winning a majority government in the last week of the last election campaign if memory serves me right. So, I'm not particularly surprised by this result.. it's just a continuation of their polling that is out of step with the other major polling firms.

Militant Dipper said...

Scott's right. Ipsos is a joke, their numbers are always wrong and they have zero credibility. I do not understand why the media even reports the results of their polls anymore. I could do poll regarding real life sightings of unicorns that would have more accuracy then an ipsos poll.

Anonymous said...

Hey Steve,

Guess we were both right last week with the Quebec numbers. These numbers this week do match the CROP poll (coincidence?) so there seems to be some validity to the Quebec numbers at least.

I agree that national number seems a little high, but the trend is what I expected after the mini-budget (up 3 points or so)

Ontario still baffles me,as Ipsos does do Ontario fairly well (even if their national numbers are usually high for the Tories), and while I think Ontario is competitive for both the Tories and Libs, I still think a Tory lead seems a little on the outside.

Yes Ipsos did have the Tories winning a majority in the last week of the election, but several other pollsters did as well - until Harper opened up about the "Liberal Supreme Court and Senate" - SES had the bet numbers last election because they kept polling right until the end, and had a bigger sample size for the last 3 days (2000 total if I recall correctly).

Agree with you on your main point -national numbers seem high (although most other olls are a few weeks old now) some reason to crow for the Tories, but this needs to be sustained (and verified by someone else atleast showing 37-38% national support) before these numbers REALLY mean anything.

Anonymous said...

After Flaherty's economic statement is released, a Con staffer was wearing the 5 per cent button highlighting the GST cut. The staffer said to David Akin that the number also represents the chance that the Cons can win the Willowdale by-election.

Unless Mississauga falls, no way can the Cons lead in Ontario having maximized their gains in Eastern Ontario.

red and proud said...

MilitantLiberal said: "Ipsos is a joke, their numbers are always wrong and they have zero credibility. I do not understand why the media even reports the results of their polls anymore."

Ipsos/Reid is the pollster of record for CanWest Global News and as such are obliged to report the results of their polls. Ipsos/Reid used to be the pollster of record for the Globe and Mail but were fired by them because of inaccuracy during the last federal election.

Anonymous said...

I heard duffy say Nanos was in the field last week...he must have got into a WEED field as I have not seen Nik and the numbers yet...I guess now that he is working for Duffy things have changed with ses....I sure hope not.

RuralSandi said...

Nanos better be careful connecting himself with Mike Duffy - most of friends say that Duffy has lost credibility as far as they are concerned.

Nanos shouls stick to the non-partisan CPAC - his reputation was built there.

The CPC have their inner polls and I would think that if they were in a good position Harper would be walking over to the GG.

Steve V said...

People are preaching to the choir, I am equally critical of Ipsos in general, which I've stated before, and in this post. That said, I tend to believe the Quebec numbers, because they're are two other outfits that show the same.

RuralSandi said...

This poll taken prior to the resurrection of the detainee issue, the death penalty issue, the possible extension to the Afghan mission and Mulroney?