Saturday, January 19, 2008

Clinton Takes Nevada

With Obama poised to win next week's South Carolina primary, today's results in Nevada give Clinton a much needed victory:
CBS and CNN are projecting Hillary Clinton as the winner over Barack Obama of the hotly contested Nevada caucuses.

With 52 percent of precincts reporting, Clinton led Obama 52 percent to 44 percent, with John Edwards a distant third with 4 percent.

That gives Clinton a second straight win over Obama, following her comeback win in New Hampshire, as Democrats point to the South Carolina primary on Jan. 26. She won despite the 60,000-member Culinary Workers Union endorsing Obama.

Clinton 2, Obama 1, Edwards fading fast.


Anonymous said...

It seems like everytime Hilary Clinton is crying about things being unfair, and she thinks there is a chance she might loose. Big Bill Clinton goes out and shakes hands with everyone and guess what, she wins. Somebody needs to tell the American people Bill Clinton is not running for office Hilary Clinton is.

Anonymous said...

Counting chickens before they hatched again Steve. You think you'd have learned your lesson by now.

Clinton has all the super delegates in SC and long standing ties and support. Edwards has now collapsed, so his votes are in play, and there is massive support for Clinton within black leadership in the state of SC.

A week is an awfully long time in politics and all the undecideds are women. In every contest since Iowa all the undecided women have broken for Clinton.

The Clinton campaign in Nevada was described as a show of raw political force, and they aren't even that well known in Nevada.

Obama may win SC, but that is hardly a given at this point in time.

Anonymous said...

Clinton LOST Nevada!!!! Bill Richardson talked all the time about how he couldn't wait to get to the Western States with the heavy Latino vote. Well, apparently Hillary KNEW she would lose Nevada so her and Bill had him conveniently DROP OUT BEFORE that state. That boosted her with Latinos to give her a SLIGHT edge. She is trying desperately to prove she is still in the game but she is really just using smoke and mirrors. She is toast!!!

Anonymous said...

That is a third straight win over Obama, Michigan counts as a state win it just as of now, (which can change), has no delegates alloted.

In fact Clinton won Michigan by a majority over all others, same as Nevad and probably Florida.

Michigan and Florida don't have delegates but her wins there will increase pressure on Obama to concede if she beats him Feb 5th, as extending the contest only hurts Democratic chances in November. At any theoretical convention, Michigan and Florida a full 10% of Democratic voters would count, ifnot in actual delegate votes then certainly in pressure and influence.

At the least Clinton goes into Feb 5th, with four wins. And yes, with 25-30% margins in Florida for Clinton and no campaigning there allowed I can count that chicken before its hatched.

Steve V said...

Actually, Richardson dropped out because his campaign was going nowhere, but believe the conspiracy theories if you will.


The blind Clinton stooge returns. There is one caveat in this race, black Dems went heavily for Obama. Obviously anyone can win in SC, but given the fact Clinton's people have basically conceded that the odds are long, not much of a stretch to say Obama is well placed. But hey, what does Clinton's campaign now, you have it all figured out.

Anonymous said...

Steve, Sc has 50% black population. It also has a 50% female population.

Except, 58-59% percent of voters in Democratic Primaries are female.

You are still under estimating a very well oiled political campaign machine.

Edwards votes are breaking about 2:1 for Clinton, and most of the undecideds are women.

There may also be excitement and a desire to show support for Mr. Obama that will not translate into the ballot box.

The economy is also the larges tconcern of Primary voters now.

I believe the polls will tighten between now and next week, with the Nevada win and the Clinton campagin machine moving into SC.

Then it will be about who comes out and how the vote breaks. Clinton has won that bet twice.

Obama might win, but not by large margins, and he might lose. We'll see.

Anonymous said...

The Clinton camp spins lowered expectations, because it is good politics.

Do not confuse that with giving up on winning SC. That would be a mistake.

Spin is Spin. They will campaign hard, and they win either way.

Anonymous said...

How can the media say Hillary wins big in Nevada when Obama gets more delegates. Thats like saying Al Gore wins big in 2000 becuase he led the popular vote. Seems like Obama should be the one being declared the winner on TV.

Anonymous said...

This is more or less the end of Edwards' presidential ambitions.

Edwards will not drop out. His delegates are from prominent unions and if it gets to be a brokered convention (a slight chance, mind you), he will play a role. Of course, Edwards can negotiate himself into the VP role.

It seems that Bill has been hanging around the casinos getting out the vote and the waitress moms responded big time. Obama did extremely well in the Reno area so the ski bums helped him tremendously. The race is very much on.

Note also that Obama has picked up major endorsements in recent weeks. Senators Kerry, Nelson from Nebraska, McCaskill from Missouri, and Governor Napolitano from Arizona have came on board.

Andurian said...

Clinton has yet to win a state. The point to these elections is selecting delegates. There has yet to be a state where she won more delegates than Obama. There are now two where Obama won more than she.

The misreporting by the major media is just sickening.

Steve V said...

Last time I checked a Democrat nominee needs 2025 delegates to win, which makes the Obama 38 delegates, Clinton 36 to date about as meaningful as a drop of water in a bathtub. Momentum.

Anonymous said...

NEVADA: In the competition for national convention delegates, Clinton won 13 and Obama 12. Edwards was shut out.
from Yahoo News

Sure, Hillary won Nevada, but as far as delegate count, she is just ONE ahead of Obama. The race is still wide open.

Anonymous said...

As an aside, where are Markos and Scott Tribe ;)?

He should have told the Dems to cross over and vote for Huckabee in SC. A Huckabee win would help broker a traders of a convention. Huck's people believe that Thompson stole this race for McCain by splitting the vote of the so-cons and he may do the same in Florida.

Steve V said...

"Huck's people believe that Thompson stole this race for McCain by splitting the vote of the so-cons and he may do the same in Florida."

That is part of the story, but Huckabee went nowhere with non-evangelicals, and surprisingly, McCain was competitive with so-cons. I think Thompson will drop out and endorse McCain before the Florida vote.

Oxford County Liberals said...

I was going to mention that Nevada's screwy delegate apportionment means Obama actually got 1 more delegate then Clinton in Nevada, but I see it was already mentioned.. so it might be a "technical" win for Clinton, but that's about all it is.

I'll say this about the Republican race: for all the talk about McCain, he was in a distant 3rd place of delegates going into the SC primary. It's amusing to me how the media down there can talk of McCain being the front-runner when he only just barely pulled ahead of Huckabee with his SC win, and still trails Romney by about 34 delegates.

Steve V said...


Delegates are meaningless at this point. What matters moving forward are WINS, perceptions, momentum. That is why nobody is focused on the delegates, except for the Romney camp. Such a small percentage, to make any arguments based on delegates seems almost trivial. I can't believe you said "distant third" like it means something, let's talk after some of the big delegate primaries. BTW, after tonight, McCain is second in delegates ;)

Steve V said...

Just to put all this delegate pre-occupation into perspective, did you know that Obama has now secured 1.7% of the delegates needed to win the nomination?

Anonymous said...

As far as delegates are concerned, NO ONE has won ANY delegates to the national convention from Nevada. All the precinct delegates are free to vote as they chose.

Chances are very goo that they will go unanimously to whomever has won by April when the county conventiona are held, and if not by then certainly by the time the State convention is held.

Uncommitted caucus delegates are more like winnner takes all states.

The fuzzy math that is proclaiming Obama won more delegates, which is impossible to predict at this point would also have to include super delegates, who care also free to vote for whom they chose, but who at this point support Clinton.

Clinton won Nevada. Chances are byt eh time the State convention rolls around, she will probably take ALL ie ALL 25 of the national delegates, not just 12.