Monday, January 21, 2008

Rudy's Flawed Strategy

I don't think I've ever seen a more flawed strategy, than the one embraced by the Guiliani campaign. If Guiliani does manage to pull out a victory in Florida, it will be more accident, than sound chess. Guiliani has never controlled his own destiny, which in and of itself speaks to pure folly. In by-passing the first six contests, his fate was contingent on a series of events, transpiring in such a way, to provide opportunity. How anyone could characterize a strategy that voluntarily makes one a spectator, guarantees little free media, provides no momentum and leaves Guiliani dependent as wise is beyond me.

Today, we have three seperate polls of New York released, which provide the most graphic example of Guiliani's seismic blunder. Rudy Guiliani now trails in his home state:

McCain 34
Guiliani 19
Romney 19


McCain 24
Guiliani 21
Romney 14


McCain 36
Guiliani 24
Romney 10

Average- McCain leads by 10 points, which is staggering. One caveat, these numbers are quite fluid, although the implications are clear.

In addition, Guiliani has lost his big lead in New Jersey, McCain has a slight edge in the last two polls. Guiliani once commented that Connecticut was a firewall state for his campaign- latest results McCain 39, Guiliani 16. Trailing in Pennsylvania, well behind in California, states tailor-made for a moderate Conservative. Everywhere you look on Super Tuesday, Guiliani is decidedly weak. Factor in a campaign that can no longer afford to pay campaign staff, and its a gloomy picture.

Of course, all of the trends could change, should Guiliani manage to win in Florida, a state in which he once had a huge lead, now slightly behind. However, even if Guiliani does take Florida now, his rivals are still in good position.

Let's say Guiliani does win, for arguments sake. All I ask, that the pundits and press don't endorse this flawed strategy as successful, because at the heart Guiliani's plan was never a good one. If Guiliani does lose, his campaign will rightfully go down as one of the most confounding in American history.

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