Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Quebec Poll

The latest Decima poll had the Conservatives falling into third in Quebec. Fuddle Duddle's Antonio made the point that CROP had the Conservatives doing much better. I responded that CROP's poll was outdated. Well, wouldn't you know it, new poll today from CROP:
For the federal Parliament, support in Quebec for the separatist Bloc Quebecois shot up to 36 percent from 31 percent, while the Conservatives of Prime Minister Stephen Harper fell by four points to 27 percent. The federal Liberals were up two points in the province to 20 percent and the left-leaning New Democrats down two points to 13 percent.

The poll covered 1,000 people from January 17-27. Such a sample should give the same result -- within 3 points 19 times out of 20 -- as if the same questions were asked of the entire Quebec population. The last poll taken November 22 to December 2.

The poll also shows the PQ up provincially, in position to form a minority government.

The CROP numbers mirror Decima's findings for the Bloc and the Liberals. Both show an uptick for both parties, both show the Liberals out of the teen's. Both polls also show Conservative erosion, however CROP still has the Conservatives a strong second at 27%, almost half the Decima finding (14%).

Antonio was right to suggest the Tories are still in the mid-twenties, but the trends are down, and people have gone back to the Bloc. This boost for the Bloc seems to go in concert with the provincial PQ fortunes. Also, I don't think it a coincidence that the ADQ numbers are dropping provincially, in tandem with the Conservatives.

For the Liberals, this CROP finding is somewhat better news, in the 20's again, some distance from the NDP. For the Conservatives, any erosion in support, coupled with a Bloc rise translates to little seat gain, a desperate component of Harper's majority dream.


Karen said...

Attempts to buy Quebec as came out today, will favour the Bloq.

I haven't examined this poll and obviously it was done before today's news broke, but buying influence from the 'central government' will not play well. Look forward to increased Bloq support, sadly.

But, the country is more united than ever now isn't it? Just like it's 'back'...way back.

Delusional is the only word I can think of to describe the Con's.

Anthony said...

decima has been wrong about this forever steve

so has strategic counsel and most other polling firms

once the election comes, there will be a rally to the federalist party doing the best in the region, helping the Liberals (in theory) on the island and the Tories (in theory) off the island

also the BQ support drops during elections last time it was a drop toward the Tories, I suspect it will be the same again, simply because I do not believe that dion has done enough yet to bring the federalist voters back

Dame said...

I will never Forget when Duceppe said To Harper last year in parliament "GIVE ME AN OFFER" ..and that was all Harper needed he Offered more then 3Billoion ..and voila The Block's vote was bought...

It can happen again. we can Cry Foul.. But the Block always can be bought..