Wednesday, January 09, 2008

New Decima Poll

I'm suffering from poll fatigue, but Harris-Decima was kind enough to conduct a useless poll of Canadians over the holidays. To nobody's surprise, Harper's year end "fireside chat" routine, coupled with a complete news shutdown, has given the Tories a boost in support:
new poll says the Conservatives jumped to a seven-point lead over the holidays.

While Canadians were busy stuffing stockings and carving up turkey, the federal Tories were busily bolting to a sizeable advantage over the Liberals, says the new Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey.

Translation- while Canadians were so thoroughly disinterested in politics, completely distracted, we decided this was a fantastic opportunity to get an accurate read of people's opinions. Alright then.

The numbers, all that might be relevant in the grand scheme, whither the NDP?:
The pollster suggests the Tories had fallen slightly behind the Liberals by mid-December, then leapt past them over the holidays to hold a 37-30 edge by the first week of January.
NDP support among 1,000 Canadians polled from Jan. 3 to 6 dipped in British Columbia, Quebec and Ontario as the party's national support dropped to just 13 per cent.

The latest poll contains plenty of bad news for the NDP.

The party - which won a historic Quebec byelection in September and hopes to take more seats in the province - sagged to eight per cent in Quebec. The Green party had nine per cent in the province.
It was almost as bad for New Democrats in Ontario. In that province, Liberals held a 40-37 lead over the Tories, while the NDP was at 12 per cent and the Green party was at 10.

"When you look at Ontario, the Green party really is edging ahead of the NDP in critical parts of the province," Anderson said.

"That's pretty big news."

I blame it all on the tryptophan in the turkey.


Jay said...

Take a look at the margin of error in the poll in general and the regional breakdowns. I goes as high as +/-8.8.

ottlib said...

Wow, the incumbent advantage kicks in during a period when Canadians have everything else besides politics on their mind.

What a startling development.

Heck, I am a self-admitted political animal and I even ignored politics during the Christmas season.

Steve V said...

"Take a look at the margin of error in the poll in general and the regional breakdowns. I goes as high as +/-8.8."

Decima's regional MOE's for Ont and Que are fine, but the rest is pretty dicey.

wilson said...

The poll was taken Jan 3-6, Christmas was over.

Will we be hearing 'Canadians don't want an election' from Dion , again??

The problem for Liberals, is they have not been able to conjure up an issue to scare women with.

If they can't scare women into voting Liberal, and Libs appeal to only 24% of decided men voters, it's not looking so good for a spring election.

RuralSandi said...

Pollsters and pundits have admitted historically - the polls favour the government during and just after Christmas season.

Also, Harper does better when parliament is not in session - now we know why he gives the MP's so much holiday time.

I think it's stupid to do a poll this early.

Anonymous said...

Yup, Dion has already stopped rattling his sabre.

Yet again, Liberal credibility=0

Steve V said...

"Yup, Dion has already stopped rattling his sabre."

I heard the lights just went on in the Conservative War Room. I wonder if ever vote will now be a matter of confidence?? Works both ways, so please give me a break.