Wednesday, May 23, 2007

Liberals Can Grow

A new Decima poll out, that suggests some optimism for Liberal prospects:
While the Conservatives and Liberals remain in a dead heat in political support, a new poll suggests the Liberals have more room for growth.

The Decima survey, made available exclusively to The Canadian Press, says 80 per cent of voters are decided or leaning to one of the five federal political parties, but almost a quarter say the Liberals would be their second choice.

Only 18 per cent tab the Tories or the NDP as their second pick.

The poll suggests that 39 per cent of those who support or are leaning to the Conservatives would vote Liberal as a second choice.

And 35 per cent of those who support the Liberals say they'd go Tory as a second choice.

Among those decided or leaning NDP, 42 per cent said the Liberals would be second choice, with another 20 per cent prepared to go to the Greens. Only 18 per cent of these nominal NDP votes would go to the Tories as second pick.

The poll gives the Tories 33 per cent support overall, with 31 per cent for the Liberals, 17 per cent NDP, 10 per cent Green and eight per cent favouring the Bloc Quebec

These findings suggest if the Liberals get their act together, that there is a receptive audience waiting. The stagnant Liberal numbers over the past months are a symptom of lack of inspiration. In order for people to move their preference, you need to motivate. This poll tells us that people are open to supporting the Liberals, it is up to the party to give them the nudge.

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

you cant trust decima he is a con and skews the polls to their benefit...he is up to something...I dont believe the cons are ahead.

knb said...

anon, they aren't really. It's a dead heat and reflects pretty much where they have been for a while.

Some good news though Steve and I agree, it's time to move people with ideas.

The one number I find a bit odd, is the Lib willing to go con as a second choice. It tells me that people aren't paying attention or don't understand the difference between the two. That has to be made crystal clear. The number for the con's second choice is not as much of a surprise to me. As I mentioned in comments a few posts back, there are disgruntled con's who are speaking out against this government.

While the media loves to report that there is strife in the ranks of the Lib's, I've heard of no one, nor any group, that has said they won't vote for the Lib's due to Dion.

Anonymous said...

it's not uncommon that the Libs would go to the Cons and Cons to the Libs - that's why we've only had two parties, Libs and Cons, in government.

Obviously, people aren't ready for an NDP or Green government.

Anonymous said...

Great spin for an otherwise dismal poll for the Liberals. New slogan coming? "The Liberals. Everbody's Second Choice".

knb said...

anon @ 6:22, that's traditionally the case, absolutley, but that was when the cons were Progressive Conservatives. That is no longer the case and it would appear that Canadians don't understand that.

Having the media constantly refer to them of Tory's, doesn't help.

Steve V said...

"Great spin for an otherwise dismal poll for the Liberals. New slogan coming? "The Liberals. Everbody's Second Choice".

Talk about spin, did you miss the "deadheat" numbers??? That translates to dismal, when you couple the growth numbers? Oh my, get your head out of the Conservative sand.

BTW, Anderson from said polling firm also concluded this is good news for the Liberals, not to mention the title of the link "Poll gives Liberals the edge".

ottlib said...

In the last year or so the main political objective of the Conservatives was to grow their support into majority territory.

They failed.

In the last year or so the Liberals main political objective was to remain in the game.

They succeeded.

Being statistically tied with the Conservatives at this stage of the game is huge. I would point out to the naysayers, such as anon. 6:27 PM, that at the same point in the Martin government the Liberals had about an 8 point lead in the polls.

No government can be happy going into a long, hot summer out of gas and statistically tied with their chief opponent.

knb said...

Well said ottlib. What do you think the con's will come up with for their "new, new, Government's" Throne Speech?

ottlib said...

Who knows knb.

Not that it matters. The Conservatives have run out of gas just before a long summer break. That is not good, especially if the Liberals begin to roll out some of their policies.

That could put the Conservatives in the inenviable position of having to continue to make up policy on the fly, reducing any impact of the future Throne Speech.

In retrospect, Stephen Harper should have called the election 6 weeks ago. He probably would not have won his majority but he would probably have won himself and his government a fresh set of downs. (Forgive the football metaphor.)

knb said...

Ottlib, I think that Harper and gang are waiting to see what the Lib's pull out, then, in a way that only they can, suggest that they have a better idea, (that is built out of straw) and spin it.

It will of course be a "historic", "monumental" "first time in history", "world leading"
announcement.

Has anyone else noticed how often these phrases are used?

Steve V said...

"Has anyone else noticed how often these phrases are used?"

And, it's particularly amusing when they re-package an old Liberal program or initiative.

Anonymous said...

now if only we could trick everybody into voting for their second choice ....

Anonymous said...

I believe the article at political watch says the Cons play tricks to let on they are still way ahead like when charest lost all the seats they let on it was very good although they knew it was very bad...Anderson is very conservative and is always trying to pull the wool over our eyes...I WOULD NEVER VOTE CONSERVATIVE as a second choice..dont believe it...he's up to NO GOOD. If anderson puts the libs ahead..you can believe we are way ahead.

Anonymous said...

Can you imagin what the Liberals could do with a real leader, one who speaks both of the "official languages."
When was the last time they had a leader from other than the Quebec Nation?
I guess the ROC isnt important.