Liberal 33.8% (-2.5)
Conservative 31.3% (-0.9)
NDP 18.7% (+1.9)
BQ 9.2% (-0.6)
Green 7.0% (+2.2)
Undecided 15.7% (-6.5)
This is the first Nanos offering since the June "showdown", these numbers reaffirm what other pollsters have already shown. A 2.5% gap is still relatively good for the Liberals and lets not forget these numbers represent a 15% swing between the two principles since the last election. The NDP numbers are positive, mostly due to an apparent uptick in Ontario:
Previous Nanos polling has shown the NDP doing quite poorly in Ontario. For example their last poll had them at 11.5%, before that 14%, before that 11%. Looking at the last two polls from EKOS and AR- particularly a much lower margin of error from EKOS- I would be hesitant to put much stock in this number. A one off? A few more results before I would readjust any reading that sees real trouble for the NDP in Ontario. That said, even this relatively high score is still lower than 2008 results.
As for the Liberals, we really are seeing a potential firming up of support, hovering near 40%- poll after poll shows this consistent result. I would catergorize this development as encouraging, because the volatility seems less pronounced, this is a terrific base to begin a campaign.
Nanos gives the Liberals a strong showing in Quebec:
A little higher margin of error than other recent polling. The Green number appears low, NDP high.
Speaking of high, Nanos also puts the Liberal out front in British Columbia:
Nanos actually gave the Liberals a larger gap in their last poll(6%). Maybe a touch high for the Liberals here, but interestingly not that far off the recent EKOS offering that gave the Liberals 30%, only 4% back of the Cons, NDP same terrority.
These numbers translate to the slightest of possible minorities for the Liberals.
Nanos also polled people on issue importance. The economy as top issue is down 5.4%, further evidence that we are becoming more optimistic about the future, a sense that the worst is behind us taking hold. At first blush, I would assume this development would help Harper, because it's been a maelstorm of bad indicators prior to June. If there is a sense of rebound looming, the sitting PM should benefit. However, Nanos captures Harper's "best PM" score at its lowest in quite some time. To be fair, Ignatieff also posts a lower score:
Stephen Harper 29.5% (-2.7)
Michael Ignatieff 26.2% (-1.2)
Jack Layton 15.2% (+2.3)
Gilles Duceppe 5.8% (-0.2)
Elizabeth May 4.0% (-2.0)
None of them 7.4% (+0.6)
Unsure 11.9% (+3.2)
Ignatieff now leads Harper in Ontario, erasing a former large advantage for the PM. I would describe that as significant. Ignatieff still leads in Quebec, although down noticeably. I've said this a million times, but this question has a built-in advantage for Harper, because he is the PM, obvious logic assumed. With that in mind, this tiny gap, trailing in key regions, not a good result at all for Harper. Considering the Conservatives still have a Harper-centric focus, this might be a concern during a campaign.