Cons 36% (33%)
Libs 29% (32%)
NDP 17% (19%)
Bloc 10% (9%)
Greens 7% (7%)
A noticeable difference, further indication that the Conservatives are winning the election speculation debate.
Most of this gap seems to be a function of a large change in Ontario. The last AR poll had the Libs 40%, Con 37%, NDP 14%. While we don't have the full numbers yet, quite a shift:
The Conservatives held a commanding 12 point lead over Michael Ignatieff's Liberals in Ontario.
A 15% shift in two weeks is massive, by any measure. Ontario has fluctuated quite a bit this year, quite volatile. I can't recall this sort of lead for the Cons in Ontario from this pollster. Part of this may be explained by this finding:
The poll also showed almost six in 10 – 58 per cent – were against any move by the opposition to topple the Harper government.
The question now becomes, is this a temporary wave for the Conservatives, borne out of immediate election anger, or does this momentum "stick"?
Here are the internals. A couple of raised eyebrows. Not a dispute of changing fortunes in Ontario, but that Liberal number looks odd:
I expected another Con at mid 40's to justify the gap, but AR has the Liberals below 30%, which I'll put in the "one off" category for now. What's interesting, despite these seemly horrible numbers, AR finds that Ontarians pick the Liberals as their first choice to look after their interests, above the Conservatives. That suggests support beyond election reaction, a underlying number that bodes well in a campaign. Anyways, I'll take the trend, but the spread is questionable, given the Liberal score.
It's a good thing AR has the Liberals relatively high in Quebec, or the national number would look worse. Not sure I buy this number necessarily:
I haven't seen a Liberal number that high in quite some time, so another "one off" perhaps. Anti-election sentiment is weakest in Quebec, so it's believable that there is no backlash for the Liberals.
AR also asks people which type of government they would prefer. The Liberals come out on top, as the preferred future government. 54% prefer a Liberal minority or majority, 46% some form of Conservative government.
Only 1/3 support the opposition taking out the government. Interestingly, there is quite a bit of opposition from Liberal and NDP supporters.