Thursday, September 10, 2009

EKOS Poll

The weekly EKOS poll shows the Conservatives opening up a slight gap over the Liberals, similar to the latest batch from other organizations:
The EKOS poll, commissioned for the CBC and released Thursday, shows the Tories with 34.2 per cent support, followed by the Liberals with 30.8 per cent, a bigger gap between the two parties than any seen all summer.

The New Democratic Party follows with 14.8 per cent support, while the Green Party has 10.1 per cent and the Bloc Québécois with 10 per cent.

A 3.4% margin now, what was a tie in last week's poll. Of note, while the Liberal number is down week to week, it's current position is identical with what EKOS had shown for the entire month of August. In other words, hardly indicative of too much from the Liberal perspective. However, as we've seen in other polls, EKOS detects a Conservative uptick. One caveat, in this poll the Conservative gain does come at the expense of the Liberals.

A tight race in Ontario:
Cons 38.4% (33.1%)
Libs 36.5% (40.4%)
NDP 13.7% (15.6%)
Greens 11.4% (10.9%)

A solid rise for the Conservatives, again we've seen this from other pollsters. Another poor result for the NDP in crucial Ontario.

In Quebec, EKOS shows improved numbers for the Bloc:
Bloc 39.8% (32.8%)
Libs 27.8% (30.9%)
Cons 15.5% (19.4%)
NDP 9.8%(9.8%)
Greens 7% (7.6%)

That is a large gap for the Bloc, maybe a touch high, but probably indicative of some movement. The Bloc seems to be drawing votes from both principle federalist parties.

EKOS also shows a statistical tie in British Columbia between the Conservatives and Liberals, NDP well back. These results are quite similar to other pollsters, which starts to make this high MOE regional more believable.

EKOS gives the Conservatives a huge advantage in Sask/Man, approaching 50%. A tie in Atlantic Canada, with the NDP right there.

All in all, not a great poll for the Liberals, obviously. It's hard to say anything conclusive based on one poll, but with the slew of releases in the past few days, there does seem to be some general trends evident. I was expecting some "blowback" from the Liberal election talk, and this finally seems to be manifesting itself, mostly in the form of Conservative uptick. The NDP's perceived weakness does seem to be hurting them slightly. The Liberals are stagnant to marginally off, with no momentum.

From the Liberal perspective, we aren't taking a big hit for threatening an election. Also, we are talking about a miniscule gap at the moment, so it's hardly a cause for really worry. The name of the game at the moment, get over the initial election outrage in a relatively positive position. The polls are vacilliating, so you look for top end/low end numbers, when speaking about electoral potential. The Liberals have hit 37-38% in the recent past, bottom seems to be around 30%. Almost the exact situation for the Conservatives, so it all comes down to this small pool of voters that flip, and only a campaign will determine where they go. While the poll trends aren't positive at the moment, I'm more focused on what's available during the election, we can erase and reverse this slight gap with little movement. Bottomline.

4 comments:

Joseph said...

Looking at the daily snap-shots, it looks like the blowback was already retreating by the end of the polling period (including what looks like days on non-polling over the holiday weekend, which makes sense).

The first couple of days were closer to 35.5 C to 29.5 L while the last couple of days were more like 33 C to 31 L.

I think one of the reasons the Liberals stated their intentions so clearly was to get the initial reaction / counter-reaction out of the way.

And, again, a poll that shows Liberals over 30%. I think this is an excellent place to start a campaign.

My opinion of the leaked speech is mixed. Overall, I think it does harm Harper, or at least reminds voters of the pettiness of the man. I am convinced he's been laying low because he absolutely turns many voters off. Yet I do think it lays out just the things he wants to push in the election. So it's a mixed bag.

I've long stopped reacting as I want to, which is to explode to everyone that they really really ought to realize just how destructive his attitude is to Canada's future. A person who aspires to lead a country just really should not paint entire segments of their country - PEOPLE, not politicians - as evil and unworthy.

It's not political talk when someone is labeling the supporters of their rivals as individuals to be "punished." That language damages democracy. It honestly frightens me to hear a politician use that type of rhetoric.

I can only hope that a large number of Canadians see that for what it is during an election.

No other politician in Canada today talks like that. Only Harper and his closest henchmen.

Anonymous said...

HA! To Warren Kinsella and the Liberals...you got hoodwinked!...Harper's speech was recorded ON purpose and released to the media...It's a GREAT campaign ad...put on...free of charge...not having to be paid for by the Conservative party.

Joseph said...

Yeah, anon, comments like that convince me it was a good idea to leak it. the cons will lap it up never realizing how it plays to sane individuals. They'll never understand why Harper doesn't have traction. Hint . . . he doesn't have it because he doesn't deserve it. His most consistent quality is reminding folks why.

Before someone feels the need to correct me (I did quick math from memory). There were four days of polling - two before the holiday and two afterwards:

First Two Days (before holiday):

Con 36%
Lib 29.5%

Last Two Days (after holiday):

Con 34%
Lib 32%

Steve V said...

Joseph

Thanks for the daily breakdown.

anon

Thanks for reinforcing the notion that there's an inverse relationship between intelligence and attraction to the Conservative Party...