Ontario (last Nanos in brackets):
Libs 39.6% (38.4%)
Cons 38.4% (35%)
NDP 15.6% (17.3)
Greens 9.2% (6.2%)
The Liberal vote is actually up slightly in Ontario, the 40% score consistent with most other recent findings. That said, a very good number for the Cons, anything close to this at election day, the Liberals can forget about forming government. This polls shows a real two horse race, and I think there is an inherent danger in the coming campaign, that the focus narrows to the principles and others are marginalized. We'll see.
Bloc 37.3% (35.8%)
Libs 32.5% (34.1%)
Cons 19.3% (13.1%)
NDP 8.9% (14.3%)
Greens 2% (2.4%)
Nanos gives the Conservatives a noticeably uptick, more in line with recent trends. Somebody told me yesterday that this Nanos poll would confirm the Strategic Counsel dud, but they were on the Con glue it seems. A good result for the Liberals, very manageable gap behind the Bloc- the slightest of movement. Very bad result for the NDP, another single digit poll, noticeable drop from the last offering. Liberals stable in Quebec, Cons coming off the mat.
Nanos has the Liberals and Conservatives tied in British Columbia, 35.6% Cons, Libs 34.3%, NDP 22.8%- almost identical to the last Nanos poll. That's a great number for the Liberals, poor result for the NDP. Again, no Liberal erosion in this region.
The Atlantic Canada numbers provide a huge and frankly suspect bounce for the Conservatives.
Cons 42% (31.5)
Libs 39.3% (39%)
NDP 17.2% (27.7%
A suspicious drop for the NDP, as well as this sudden surge for the Conservatives. The margin of error is huge, and I think Nanos got this one wrong. Again, the Liberal vote remains unchanged poll to poll.
Nanos also gives the Conservatives the Cons a 10% in the "Prairies" up to 58.6%. Liberals remain in the low 20%, NDP down to the low teens.
In the big picture, this poll demonstrates a rather consistent Liberal vote in all regions. The Conservative lead is more a function of their own improvement, rather than Liberal erosion, again a strange dynamic using the past as measure.