Friday, September 04, 2009

Quebec Poll

New Leger poll, taken between August 31 and September 2. The numbers look similar to the other polls released this week, further evidence that there is no immediate election "blowback" in Quebec for the Liberals:
Bloc 35%
Libs 30%
Cons 16%
NDP 16%

Three polls, all showing the Libs at the 30% mark.

The francophone breakdown:
Bloc 42%
Libs 26%
NDP 15%
Cons 14%

Feedback from the pollster:
With such results, the Liberal Party is poised to make gains in Quebec in the upcoming elections, said Christian Bourque, vice-president of Leger Marekting. "Some districts which are generally favorable may become red, especially in the Mauricie and Eastern Townships," he said.

Bourque notes a "real curiosity" with Ignatieff.

The NDP do well in this poll, relative to the findings this week. Layton also enjoys great popularity. Despite this, the pollster cautions that this vote probably doesn't hold during an election, a view I've articulated as well:
"There is not much room left in the center of the political spectrum, between the Bloc and the Liberal Party. It is as if the NDP had two good drivers, but are sitting in the wrong car " he said.

The NDP still suffers from a credibility problem, it is sound to assume when the vote nears people move to the viable options. As an aside, I think if the election is held this fall the NDP, despite the bluster, will not spend the maximum this campaign. They're broke, and that's an objective fact, so to pour money into a risky Quebec flyer isn't in the cards, particularly if other incumbent seats are at risk, which they clearly will be. If that sounds partisan, too bad :)

All and all, another small sign that the Liberal fortunes haven't been damaged in an initial sense, with this election rhetoric.

26 comments:

Tof KW said...

I personally don't think the Lib's should worry too much about any sort of backlash from an election call, and this poll confirms that. After all, this time last year the polls were saying the same thing about the public not wanting an election, yet Harper started one anyway. And regardless of breaking his own election law, there was no voter backlash against the Reform-a-tories. About ten days into any campaign this 'backlash' effect is all but forgotten by the public, as issues and 'who-said-what' begin to get full coverage by the media. Now that said, the Liberals had better have their gameplan ready once the Harperites begin to slag Ignatieff, and spread their numerous half-truths & outright lies around. Otherwise we've got Election-2008 part deux.

Eugene Forsey Liberal said...

Dear Steve V., I realise you don't know much French, so you might want to check out Spector every once in a while for help, who makes this note on his Globe blog: "So it’s not hard to see how we get to the election Mr. Ignatieff seems to want — though one has to wonder why he would, in light of a poll today showing him sinking to Harper-levels of unpopularity in Qu├ębec", by which he's referring to Le Devoir's poll highlighting that Harper is personally at 12%, Iggy at 14%. Of course, I'm sure Iggy will out-campaign and out-debate Duceppe in QC, and the cultural elites will swing behind Iggy they way they showed their gratitude to that other anglo, Harper, who'd done pretty much all they'd asked except for one little culture cut. You should go back and reread your Trudeau, "Democracy In QC" is the essay I have in mind. Of course, when the Bloc and the media start to highlight Iggy's foreign policy positions, I'm sure the QC public will be extra impressed by someone whose views are so close to their own, on issues they care so deeply about...

Best,

EFL

Joseph said...

Yeah, EFL, "liberal". I checked your blog again, EFL. I hear you. I don't believe you.

Con mole.

Done.

Steve V said...

You're a joke Eugene.

DL said...

What do you make of the fact that according to this poll when Quebecers are asked which leader they have the most confidence in its Duceppe 32%, Layton 23%, Iggy 14% and Harper 12%. Seems like quite a rejection of the leaders of the two biggest parties.

Steve V said...

That's a good number for Layton, but I'm just not that worried that it translates into actual votes. I see the NDP being marginalized when push comes to shove. That's my "likelihood" take.

RuralSandi said...

Duceppe and Layton - same political views - socialists. Layton's problem - they will vote for the same political view but interests are in Quebec only - Duceppe.

Eugene Forsey - con mole? You know, probably. He's been on a pathetic mission from day one.

I can't even stand to read his BS anymore.

Steve V said...

"Eugene Forsey - con mole? "

It's not that bright or sophisticated, just bitter and child like. On the plus side, nobody cares, it's funny at this point.

Anonymous said...

Eugene has identified Ignatieff's Achilles heel, at least in Quebec. the Bloc and NDP are going to hammer him with it and these poll numbers for the Liberals will go down. It's too bad to, because with time the Liberal brand has been starting to rebound from Adscam.

RuralSandi said...

Anon - is that you Eugene? Why is someone who's defending you afraid to show their name?

ottlib said...

Eugene's not a con mole he just has got over the fact that Michael Ignatieff is the leader of the Liberal Party.

It was people like him that eventually caused the Chretien/Martin schism to explode.

Steve V said...

Ohhh another "anon", how persuasive.

Yawn me a river.

All I know, from people actually important, Quebec Liberals are JACKED about Ignatieff's chances. Suck your thumb Eugene, it's addition by subtraction.

Anthony said...

polls dont mean jack until the election begins. I mean he Greens consistently poll around 10% and we never hear from them at all during the election

The Libs and BQ are about even in Quebec and will make gains at the expense of the Bloc who will make gains at the expense of the Tories.

Steve V said...

Agreed Anthony. What they do tell me, we are positioned well heading in, there's an openness, a "curiousity" as the pollster puts it, so the Libs have room for optimism. What you want is to emerge as the clear option to the Bloc, narrow the debate. I think this will happen by default, because the Bloc are going to come after us, we threaten more of their seats. People assume it's bad when everybody's firing at you, umm it's bad when they ignore you ;)

DL said...

"People assume it's bad when everybody's firing at you, umm it's bad when they ignore you ;)"

So then i guess it speaks volumes that all these Liberal bloggers seem to spent 90% of their time attacking the NDP while they ignore the Tories.

Steve V said...

Ya, I never go after Harper DL. Stop talking, you look silly now.

The only reason I go after the NDP, is because you guys are obsessed with trashing us. I just like to point out that you're hypocrites, who's moral authority is borne out of irrelevance and the luxury of never having to operate in the practical. I'm going to mock the living shit out of the NDP when they completely change their tune, after having to listen to the sanctimonous crap for eternity. You walk amongst the mortals DL, just like everybody else, despite the "ideals". The NDP are just Liberals that don't have to govern. If you doubt that look at Doer the "pragmatic centrist", "without a socialist bone in his body" or the new posterchild in Nova Scotia who's completely and utterly abandoned the federal NDP messaging.

RuralSandi said...

LOL - DL.....Layton's time is spent attacking Liberals at every chance, and that was his mistake.

He doesn't attack who he should - the Cons. You know, if you can dish it out there NDP'rs you better be able to take it.

I just read Eugene's blog - he's now whining and crying about the rude people. He's very childish actually.

Steve V said...

Oh, that's a hoot Sandi.

Whatever.........

DL said...

"Layton's time is spent attacking Liberals at every chance, and that was his mistake."

Really??? What planet do you live on? I live on the planet Earth and in the last election, the NDP ONLY ever attacked the Tories and Harper is they completely ignored Dion and the Liberals. So what's the problem.

BTW: The "messaging" that Doer and Dexter use is all cut from the same cloth as the federal NDP. They use the same ad agency and communications advisors and if you look at ads and slogans for the Manitoba and NS NDP - you'll see all the same stuff about "helping today's families" that you see from the federal party. As for being sanctimonious - whatever do you mean?? It seems to me that a lot of Liberals keep wishing that the NDP would go back to being a weak, sanctimonious "conscience of parliament" like it was in the 90s. What you don't seem to like is when we reject the old sanctimoniousness and now are willing to play hardball like everyone else. Tough!

Steve V said...

DL

Yes, and they spent the entire summer prior trashing the carbon tax to score points. Again, stop with the purity angle DL, you lose every time.

Oh, btw, go look at the NDP website. Then go look at the Libs. Who's trashing who? AND, who ran ADS against the Libs this year? Oh yes, I remember. Please.

ottlib said...

"The only reason I go after the NDP, is because you guys are obsessed with trashing us."

And because it is so much fun.

The Conservatives are boors and proud of that fact. In their small minds they actually equate boorishness as some kind of virtue. One thing I have noticed about boors is they are incapable of seeing when they are being insulted or criticised. They just project on the one doing the criticising and move on.

NDPers on the other hand take themselves very seriously. They believe they should govern by right because their beliefs and motives are pure. They resent the Liberals because they see a party that is close to them on many issues, but it is impure and still beats them every time for that progressive vote.

Of course their self image does not meet the reality and when someone, particularly Liberals, point that out to them they become as prickly as Hedgehogs. It is really funny to watch.

DL said...

In other words, the Tories represent the "id". The Liberals represent the "ego" and the NDP represents the "super-ego"!

Steve V said...

Hmmm.

Josh said...

I won't speculate how the chips would fall for the NDP in Quebec in a fall election. They will, however, continue to outpoll the Liberals on the Prairies and BC, and will probably hold their seat in Edmonton. We shall see whether the Libs can manage a single seat between Regina and Vancouver. Ontario is another matter, of course, but those of us who live elsewhere are more than aware that federal party fortunes there do not reflect those of the country.

I suppose the Liberals can take some solace in emerging from third place in the NS legislature for the first time in 10 years.

Steve V said...

"I won't speculate how the chips would fall for the NDP in Quebec in a fall election."

Oh okay.


And, wow that provincial NS Liberal reference is just so relevant.

Jon Pertwee said...

Josh, that was soooo AWESOME how you summarized the voting patterns for Western Canada from Nova Scotia.

Hey, Im kinda bored with the usual options for the weekend here in Vancouver. I wonder if maybe you could suggest something for me; being such an expert of the west?