Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Poll Regionals

Here are some regional results from Decima's latest offering. Bad news all around for the Conservatives, with the Liberal well ahead in Ontario, a solid second in Quebec:
In Quebec the latest week’s results find the BQ with 37%, the Liberals 21%, the Conservatives 14%, the Greens 13%, and the NDP with 12%. Over three weeks, the BQ leads with 37% compared to 21% for the Liberals, 16% for the Conservatives, 13% for the NDP and 9% for the Green Party.

• In Ontario, latest results show the Liberals with 44%, compared to the Conservatives 30%, the NDP 15%, and the Green Party 10%. Over three weeks, the Liberals lead with 40% compared to the Conservatives at 31%, the NDP at 15% and the Greens at 12%.

• In BC, three week averages show the Conservatives with 34%, the Liberals with 25%, the NDP with 20% and the Green Party at 18%. In Atlantic Canada, three-week averages show Liberals with 36%, the Conservatives at 33%, the NDP 23%, and the Greens at 6%.

The Liberal lead in Ontario is fairly impressive, if numbers like the above hold, then a Liberal minority isn't out of the question.

The Conservatives numbers in Quebec are depressing, in fact I don't remember results this low for quite some time. Also, a decent result for the NDP.

British Columbia is very competitive, but what is quite striking, the Green Party support. The Conservatives best chance seems to be vote-splitting, rather than impressive support for the party.

While the total poll numbers show the Liberals up a mere 2%, these regionals suggest better prospects. Don't be surprised if Dion starts talking tough again ;)


Jeff said...

The proof in the pudding in BC will be with where each parties respective support is concentrated.

BC is almost a tale of two regions, Coastal/Vancouver and Interior. Con support tends to be concentrated in the interior at semi-Alberta levels. If their support has dropped across the board, it may not but those seats in play given the pluralities, but coastal and and suburban seats would be up for grabs.

And the strong interior pluralities may be masking Con suburban weakness, which would make for interesting two-way races between the Liberals and NDP in many seats. I think both parties will gain seats in the province, a trend we saw in 04 and 06.

All that said, sample sizes are too small to really mean much.

Anthony said...

thinking the Tories are actually at 14% in Quebec is risky business.

every polling firm from Quebec like CROP and Leger consistently have the Tories in the mid-20s in Quebec.

I suspect the Tories are still there, only because I strongly believe nothing has changed in Quebec to make people go back to the Bloc.

As for the NDP, once they find out who is running against Mulcair, tehy will have more than enough on their plate in Quebec.

I hope Martin Cauchon's signs are red...

liberazzi said...

I think if we took an average of the most recent polls, it would show that not much has changed and a basic deadlock or slim minority for the Cons still remains. A spring election is certainly going to be a horserace.

Anonymous said...

When is Stephanie going to call the election.

Steve V said...

"every polling firm from Quebec like CROP and Leger consistently have the Tories in the mid-20s in Quebec."

Those are older polls. 14% might be a tad low, but this isn't the first poll to put the Cons back in third, the Liberals slightly rebounding. Charest has really distanced himself from Harper, and when you think about it, just what policies of Harper's appeal to Quebecers? The Bloc seems the fall back position, the PQ seems to be doing just fine, any hesitation with the Liberals, people trend back.

Anonymous said...

"I suspect the Tories are still there, only because I strongly believe nothing has changed in Quebec to make people go back to the Bloc."

The fall out from the Mulroney-Schreiber inquiry will probably do the trick. Bloquistes were left for dead until the sponsorship scandal revived them. More government sleaze hurts Harper there.

Marois can also help Duceppe and in a way, Dion. The more the BQ bangs the separatist drum, coupled with reasonable accomodation, Dion gets to run on his strongest issue - national unity against Stevie.

Anonymous said...

What mushroom said. Also, remember that it's a Quebec regiment suffering casualties in Afghanistan now; isn't it likely that would focus Quebecers' attention on Harper's incompetence in foreign affairs?