Monday, June 02, 2008

The Grain Of Salt Poll

I sort of debate even mentioning this poll anymore, the "analysis" from the last offering so revealing, it's hard to see any objectivity. Government in disarray, scandals abound, economy weakening, and yet, the Conservatives widen their lead, despite some off the wall Quebec numbers:
It said support for the Conservatives was up one point to 36% since the last survey three weeks ago. Support for the Liberals dropped three points to 29%, while the NDP's standing was unchanged at 14% and the Green party's stood at 11%, up two points.

In Quebec, the Bloc maintained the lead at 31%. The Liberals were ahead of the Conservatives 26% to 18%.

Given those Quebec numbers, you can assume Ipsos has the Tories rebounding in Ontario. Okay.

Don Martin, employed by said news organization that commissions this poll has said "Ipsos tends to overstate Conservative support". Don Martin is a smart man.


Anonymous said...

I was waiting for this can call me a crazy old man but I knew this was coming....there were sounds that dion might cave in tonite and this is their way of scaring him not to bring down the tories...the quebec numbers were so weird while crop says they are last...I hope dion pulls the plug today as they must be really low. If I ever come into money I shall buy a polling firm and show these buggers up.

Steve V said...

"you can call me a crazy old man"

Crazy like a fox?

knb said...

It certainly is weird especially Quebec, when you consider the recent crop poll, even if the sample size is much larger.

Steve V said...


As much as I'd like to believe that result, I can't. Leaving the CROP poll aside, the other national polls have never show the Liberals so far ahead of the Cons, basically right behind the Bloc.

The Mound of Sound said...

There've been signs of top-level unrest at the National Spot since the Bernier scandal took hold. Asper went straight off his nut. So I'm not surprised about this poll or its timing. Even Don Martin knows its gamed to produce pro-Harper stats and being paired with the Harperites house organ, NaPo, the results were utterly predictable.

JimBobby said...

Whooee! It's interesting that the Greens are up and the Grits are down. This is the highest ever for the Greens on an Ipsos poll. The NDP's steady showing demonstrates that the Greens are not a threat.

Here's how I figger it's workin'. Would-be Liberal supporters have been flocking to to see the details of the tax shifting policy. Once they start readin' Vision Green, they become enthralled with the broad-based wisdom of the Green Party and decide we ain't a buncha barefoot hippies with one issue.

If we can get Lizzie May in the TV debates, even more voters'll see us for the well-rounded, socially liberal, fiscally conservative party we are.


Anonymous said...

Ipsos - CanWest - need I say more.

Antonio said...

I wonder why CROP keeps disagreeing with the English polling firms.

They interview 4 times as many people too...

the french polling firms are finding much different results on the island of Montreal, which accounts for thediscrepancy in poll numbers.

NDP support is rising at the expense of BQ support in the regions, which is great news for the Tories and terrible news for Gilles

Anonymous said...

Has this poll factored in the Bernier resignation?

That may count for the rise in Grit numbers.

Miles Lunn said...

Ipsos does tend to overestimate Tory support, although I found Decima tends to underestimate it. I usually take the average of a series of polls rather than one. Besides, wait a week and see what the numbers are. Often the Tories don't fall right when a scandal erupts, but rather once it is has been on the front page for a full week and it has sunk into the public's mind.

The only plausible explanation for the Tories numbers not falling is we are heading for a recession and when the economy turns for the worse the "me" attitude starts to replace the "we" attitude. When people are doing well, they feel more likely helping those who are struggling while when struggling themselves, they worry mainly about themselves and not others. One just has to look across the Atlantic to Europe where the economy is heading for trouble and country after country is turfing centre-left governments (elected when it was strong) and replacing them with centre-right ones. Here in Ontario, Harris won by capitalizing on the "me" attitude which was strong in the mid 90s, but dissipated greatly by 2000, which is why the Ontario PCs partly, amongst other reasons too, were turfed in 2003.

Steve V said...

"The only plausible explanation for the Tories numbers not falling is we are heading for a recession and when the economy turns for the worse the "me" attitude starts to replace the "we" attitude."

I think it works in concert with what the Liberals have been doing. The underlying numbers for the Cons are dropping, on a host of measures, but people haven't moved, primarily do to lack of credible option. The support has softened, but you also need an alternate draw, and they benefit for relative weakness.