Wednesday, June 25, 2008

New Green Shift Poll

Thanks to whomever was kind enough from Angus-Reid to send me a pdf of their latest online poll. The horserace numbers show the Conservatives lead shrinking, down from 7 points last month to 3 this month- Cons 33%, Libs 30%, NDP 19%, Greens 9%. These numbers now mirror other polls, basically a statistical deadheat.

The interesting part of the poll, another measure of people's attitudes towards the "Green Shift". A mixed bag, there appears to be support for the broad strokes, but voters are still largely unaware of the actual details, some misinformation:
Supporters of Canada’s four main opposition parties express positive views on the proposed carbon tax presented last week by Liberal leader Stéphane Dion, but some misconceptions about the plan and its implications remain

Putting a price on carbon:
Putting a price on greenhouse gas emissions is a good idea:

47% support
36% oppose

Will a carbon tax help:
The proposed carbon tax will ultimately lead people to be more mindful of their carbon consumption and change their behaviour
65% support
26% oppose

Good news, for the general theme of the Liberal plan:
As you may know, Liberal leader Stéphane Dion presented his carbon tax proposal—also known as the Green Shift—last week. Which of these statements comes closest to your own point of view?

Support 70%
Oppose 19%

However, the Liberals have work to do getting the message out:
The proposed carbon tax will increase the price of gasoline across Canada:
66% True
8% Not True

The proposed carbon tax will be revenue neutral—the money generated by the carbon tax will be given back to Canadians in the form of personal income tax cuts and business tax cuts:

15% True
54% Not True

People also overwhelming believe a carbon tax will hurt low income earners and seniors.

On political possibilites, another poll that suggests an opportunity t expand support:
The proposed carbon tax was welcomed by supporters of the four opposition parties, with 66 per cent of Liberal voters, 56 per cent of NDP voters, 51 per cent of Bloc Québécois voters, and 49 per cent of Green voters agreeing that putting a price on greenhouse gas emissions is a good idea. A majority of Liberals (57%) and Greens (54%) are willing to pay higher taxes on fossil fuels if they also get an income tax cut.

Conservatives aren't supportive. But then again, when only 44% of Conservative respondents actually believe in global warming, is that terribly surprising?

This is the type of poll that everyone can select the information that validates their predisposition. For my part, I like the fact that another polling outfit shows a close national race, reinforcing that dynamic. On the environmental front, the Liberals can see a path for growth, but it is imperative that they get the message out in a clear way- no news there.


Anonymous said...

This is an online poll?

Steve V said...

"This is an online poll?"

Yes, you can tell when I said in the FIRST sentence "latest online poll".

bigcitylib said...

Excellent stuff. Any idea why they haven't released the full poll. Also, what are the dates? Can any of the tightening be attributed to the Green Shift?

calgarygrit said...

I assume this is from the same poll the Star published today about a Dion/Harper debate. My guess is it will be in tomorrow’s Star.

Steve V said...

Poll was done June 23rd and 24th. I have the full pdf, but I don't have an address to link too.

Anonymous said...

This poll is virtually identical to what the last Strategic Counsel poll showed two weeks ago:

* Conservatives: 32 per cent
* Liberals: 30 per cent
* New Democrats: 18 per cent
* Bloc Quebecois: 10 per cent
* Green Party: 10 per cent

Any way you slice it, the polls all say the same thing - they point to a seat split that will be almost identical to last time.

it will all boil down to what happens in the campaign.

I predict that by the time we are in an election campaign in November - climate change and the carbon tax will already be an old issue and the "ballot question" will be something else.

Steve V said...

"I predict that by the time we are in an election campaign in November - climate change and the carbon tax will already be an old issue and the "ballot question" will be something else."

Actually, and sorry to pierce your Con want, but this is now the chief area of distinction between the two parties, it is guaranteed a primary focus in the campaign. That doesn't mean other issues, obviously, but to actually think we will an "old" issue in four months is ridiculous. I predict your prediction is entirely WRONG.

Anonymous said...

Good news for Liberals from an Angus Reid poll - this is good news! We counter misinformation from Cons about pump prices and assistance to lower-income earners and we're in.

Blues Clair said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Blues Clair said...

Andrew Coyne has an interesting and somewhat cyptic take on Dion's Carbon Tax proposel. Makes me think that the only shifting Dion is doing is to the right.

Steve V said...


Don't forget about all those "lefty" environmentalists. Maybe it just suggests broad support, across the political spectrum.

Blues Clair said...

Very true Steve, though I do detect some friction on the Left to Dion's proposel. And to think that The C. D. Howe Institute is onboard! Shit... makes me nervous.

Steve V said...

Hey, at least the Fraser Institute rejected it. The world still makes sense :)

ottlib said...

Actually Stephane Dion is proposing both "left" and "right" policies in his Green Plan.

Imposing any kind of tax is considered to be a "left-wing" idea regardless the form it takes.

And the extra funding for the less-well-off, you can almost see the pick-yourself-up-by-the-bootstraps-let-the-market-handle-it crowd reaching for the 20 year old single malt.

As well, Stephane Dion is doing all of this to help the environment. That warrants a second glass of the single malt.

However, the tax cuts he is proposing comes right out of the -right-wing handbook. Across the board income taxes and business incentives. I am certain that a few of the granola-eating-public-transportation-taking-the-government-must-tax-the-wealthy crowd are reaching for their stash.

Stephane Dion seems not to care whether a solution is "left" or "right". He only seems to care whether it would be effective in achieving the goals of his plan.

Refreshing way of thinking is it not?