Tuesday, September 18, 2007

How About A Poll

The Conservatives biggest asset might be Stephane Dion, and the Liberals best chance might be Stephen Harper's Conservatives. New poll:
Conservatives had 32 per cent support, compared with 29 per cent for the Liberals. That spread is covered by the poll's margin of error, which is 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The poll found the NDP had the support of 17 per cent of respondents nationally, while the Green party had 14 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois five per cent.

Results from the last three weeks of polling suggested the Tories and Liberals were tied at 31 per cent, with the NDP at 15 per cent, the Greens at 13 per cent and the Bloc at eight per cent

The money quote:
"For the Liberal party, these numbers reveal an opportunity dropped, at least so far; if voters seem cool to the Conservatives, they are not warming to Mr. Dion."

Where were these numbers yesterday:
The survey, conducted earlier this week through Monday's Quebec byelections, also suggested that the Bloc Quebecois had slumped to 22 per cent in Quebec, compared with 26 per cent for the Conservatives. The Liberals and the NDP were tied at 16 per cent in the province, just a point ahead of the Green party.

First time a poll has put the Conservatives out front in Quebec, which is less surprising than it would have been yesterday. For anybody who thought Muclair was a one off, note the NDP tied with the Liberals in Quebec.

Kinsella is still trashing Paul Martin, but here are the raw vote totals for all three by-elections:
Conservative 31475 36.9
Bloc 23983 28.1
NDP 14587 17.1
Liberal 12118 14.2
Green 2197 2.6

Spreads are comparable to the Decima poll.

I have a bad feeling that the last week of this poll, that shows a margin of error lead for the Conservatives might be a sign of a new gap, the last few days have to hurt. Time will tell. In the end, the key might be where the sizable Green support ends up, is it solid or soft?


lance said...

Steve said, "In the end, the key might be where the sizable Green support ends up, is it solid or soft?"

I think last night pretty much proved that the vaunted Green support is neither sizable or solid.

Not in the rural, not in the urban.


Steve V said...


Good point, but not enough to say for sure. If anything, the Green support says voters are shopping around.

Dr. Tux said...

I don't think I've seen the Green vote so high before. Very nice. My greatest hope is that we see the green's poll above the NDP.

daniel said...

Not to burst your bubble, James, but if these by-elections were any indication, many people see voting for the Green Party in a poll as tantamount to voting "none of the above." I doubt that the Greens will be polling so robustly come election time.

Red Tory said...

Elizabeth May can't have found the numbers from last night's results very encouraging in the least. Usually there's a significant gap between the "parked" vote and what materializes, but this time the difference was glaring. I was surprised, I figured more people would vote for them just as a sort of nothing-to-lose protest vote. In two of the ridings they were in Rhino/Marxist-Leninist territory.

tdwebste said...

No the Conservatives biggest asset is Liberal in fighting.

Way to go Liberal's. You are very close to losing my vote and support, if you don't stand up and publicly support each other.

Very sad to say. They lost votes from the previous polls because of in fighting. And they will lose the next election too for the same reason if they don't end this in fighting story now.

Steve V said...


I wonder how the Dion/May angle will play out in a general. If the support is soft, then how may speaks of Dion could be a great asset.

lance said...

Steve, it depends on May. If she's in it as a shill for the Libs then it may be an asset.

I don't think her politics regarding the CPC is in any great doubt. ("greatest threat", "punish Mackay", etc)

The question is will her personal politics override the best interests of the Green party. If so, will the membership and executive allow her to throw their best chances and possibly alienate the base.

It is never smart politics to send your support to another party, you probably won't get them back, especially when you're a fringe party.


Steve V said...


A key thing, can May get into the debates.

lance said...

Not a chance.

Steve V said...

I wouldn't say that at all, in fact May is somewhat of a media darling, and expect her to make a strong case. Don't forget, the Libs might work behind the scenes to lend a hand :)

lance said...

And the CPC and the NDP will work against them.

Besides, do you honestly think that after the Quebec fallout, Dion is still going to be kissy-kissy with May?

Whoo, she got 10k in the London North byelection during the highest point of the environmental debate yet.

Course the Green's didn't even bother in the Repentigny byelection on the same day.

Targeting the whole party to one riding in a progressive heartland and losing. I guess that's a reason to be in the debate?

Now that the noise has subsided she'll have to do a whole lot better than 2k votes in three Quebec ridings for a spot.

Like Red said, Rhino territory.

Dion isn't going to go light on her anymore, so scrap those TO byelections. Northern Sask? Yeah, right, the Rhino's have a _better_ chance.

Vancouver? Maybe. Probably their best chance. Depends a lot on the Dipper/Liberal fight.