Thursday, December 18, 2008

Hard To Keep Up

I've finally figured it out, Jim Flaherty is operating with a three week lag time. Flaherty speaks or releases, but for some reason it takes that much time for the news to make to the outside world. We've seen this lag pattern since the election, wherein everyone is taking about one scenario, but Flaherty is speaking in outdated language, only to catch up later, about three weeks.

Think I'm crazy, well consider the following:

1)Yesterday, Flaherty revises his economic forecasts in line with private forecasts, available to him three weeks ago when he released his economic update.

2)Today, the Flaherty announces that we will have a deficit of 5 billion next year, which happens to be quite similar to Budget Officer Page's assessment, released exactly three weeks ago.

3)Today, Flaherty announces a economic advisory council, which seems strangely similar to a concept floated by the coalition almost three weeks ago.

4)Remember, during the last week of an election, Flaherty said deficits were unacceptable and then three weeks later, he argued that they might be necessary.

5)Remember when Flaherty was arguing that Canada could avoid a recession, while economists were suggesting a "technical" recession. Three weeks later, when Flaherty was talking about a "technical" recession, economists were talking about a real recession. Now, three weeks later Flaherty is talking about a real recession, while economists are talking about a deep and long recession. Look for Flaherty to concede a deep recession in the second week of January.

There's more, namely on stimulus, but you can see the pattern. I'm no expert on worm holes, time continuum's and what not, but I bet Jim Flaherty thinks today is November 28th. Can't wait until he learns Ignatieff is the new Liberal leader.


Constant Vigilance said...

Wait till two and a half weeks from now when he learns of the Globe description of his as the Finance Minster who wasn't.

Susan said...

Good post - he seems disconnected when he speaks, like he's just there to fill space and time. Maybe the lag time is at the PMO office - Harper's backed up.

Anonymous said...

Todays latest is a multiple year recession and debt accumulation of up to 18 billion.
And the Conservative response? New aboriginal housing. I'm happy I didn't waste any airmiles to frigid (but lovely) Saskatoon for that one.
Even more depressing was Poilievre, Mulcair and Leblanc on Duffy last night.
With Senator Jabba the Butt laughing all the way, Pierre insists that the Conservatives are concerned about Canadian families while the Liberals are schemeing behind the scenes with the seperatists and the socialists.
The reply? A Dominic unhappy face and Duffy reminding him that he still loves him.

janfromthebruce said...

So if the Harper govt is going to follow the coalition template, and than take all the credit, it would make sense for the coalition partners - libs/NDP - to defeat this sad case of a govt in a timely fashion (seeing that this govt is out of step and out of time), and get the credit and also help Canadians in a timely fashion.

So if the libs prop up Harper cons, it would appear that being out of step and time, is ok with them.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for taking the time to compile this, Steve.

I found myself thinking the same thing in concept this morning, but didn't want to spend the energy proving it.

Is it some type of bizarre strategy? Seriously, it reminds me of the Bush administration who wouldn't so much send "mixed signals" as they would talk out of both sides of their mouth like they wanted journalists and voters to only "hear" the things they wanted to hear.

For voters worried more needs to be done, they send that message. But for those who think we ought to just ride it out and want to believe all is fine, well, they've got that message covered as well.

But when will the actual journalists in the country rip them a new one for just babbling in all directions including opposite ones?

And they said Martin dithered. What the hell is this? TODAY they announce they might talk to some economic experts about next steps. Gee, what a great idea for a year ago (or more). We're supposed to be impressed that they are announcing they are seeking economic advice. I think most Canadians would be shocked to hear they haven't been up til now.

Anonymous said...

Anon 2:36 - LeBlanc is related to the diplomat that's missing in Niger. I think he's allowed to be a little sad don't you?...sigh.

JanfromtheBruce - give it a rest. Taking credit? Layton is already trying to take sole credit, as usual.

Steve V said...

Prop up the Cons? So, when the Cons implement the Liberal agenda, it's a sellout? Jan, just go back to your negative vitrol, it's your natural state anyways. BTW, Lavigne was on CTV today saying the coalition has already "won".


It does seem like the media is taking the government to task at the moment, this has been a brutal week. I think part of the problem, nobody can keep up with the back tracking, it's furious.

Steve V said...

On the, "hard to keep up" front:

A senior government official said deficits totalling $20-billion to $30-billion will be “short term,” but wouldn't give a specific time frame.

The estimate is more than double the projections contained in a Finance Department document released at the finance ministers meeting in Saskatchewan.

How many days ago did Flaherty meet in Sask? Two?