Prime Minister Stephen Harpers' Conservatives have surged to 40% in popular opinion and entered majority government territory, a new poll says.
The poll, conducted exclusively by Ipsos-Reid for CanWest News Service and Global Television after the Harper government delivered its new budget, shows the Tories have opened up an 11-point lead nationally over Stéphane Dion's Liberals.
Grit support plunged to 29% from 34% in a survey conducted a week earlier.
Moreover, the poll indicates the Conservatives have opened up a 10-point lead (43% to 33%) over the Liberals in Ontario, the crown jewel of Canadian politics with 106 seats. They also are locked in a virtual tie with them in Quebec, 26%-25% for the Liberals. Quebec has 75 federal seats.
"The compelling part of this is that they have actually tied the Grits in Quebec, and they've got a 10-point lead on them in Ontario. With that 10-point lead, they can clean up." Mr. Bricker said.
The poll put NDP support at 14%, up two points from the last poll.
The Green party slipped one point to 7%.
Opinion of the budget:
found Canadians are twice as likely to give the budget "two thumbs up" than "two thumbs down." The split was 24-12. Half of those surveyed said it was neither good nor bad and opted to "symbolically shrug their shoulders."
That 40% number must have Tory strategists ITCHING. The most troubling finding of this poll, the Ontario numbers. A 10 point lead is significant, and is clearly the key to a solid majority.
Should we be worried? Call me a partisan hack, but while somewhat concerning, I'm not inclined to put a lot of stock in a poll done in the budget aftermath. As I stated prior, the initial hours of budget coverage are usually the media puppeting the government. It takes a few days for complete digestion, which is why any polling next week might be a better indicator.
Two curious parts of the poll. In Alberta, everyone seems relatively happy with the budget, yet the Conservative lose 7%. In British Columbia, with a mixed reaction, so much so Harper took to the airwaves, we see a 10% surge. Both those results make little sense.
Angus-Reid online poll with more to chew on:
Overall, do you think the proposed federal budget will be good or bad for the country / for you personally?
Good 52% 36%
Bad 22% 29%
Don’t know 26% 35%
Based on what you have seen, heard or read about the federal budget, are you satisfied with its provisions in these particular topics?
Offering help to Canada’s working families 55%
Restoring the fiscal balance between the federal government and the provinces 49%
Providing support to the Canadian Forces and its members 48%
Encouraging the people who use welfare to work again 46%
Safeguarding the environment and fighting global warmin 41%
Delivering authentic tax relief to Canadian 39%
Assisting Canadian students with their debt loa 36%
Eliminating waiting lists for health care treatment 35%
Developing an efficient anti-drug strateg 29%
Addressing the needs of Aboriginal Canadians 27%