a new Ipsos-Reid survey conducted for CanWest/Global Television says that after more than a year in power, 65 per cent of Canadians say they do not feel they know Mr. Harper better as a person than when he became prime minister.
"He is a mystery wrapped inside an enigma, wrapped inside a riddle," is how Darrell Bricker, president of the polling firm, portrayed Canadians' view of Mr. Harper.
Women in particular see him as a mystery man, according to the survey, which found that 72 per cent of women, compared to 59 per cent of men, reported feeling they did not know Mr. Harper any better now than when he won the election last year.
"It's clear Mr. Harper has difficulty with women," Mr. Bricker said, citing other polls that have pointed to Mr. Harper's gender gap. "When you ask people whether or not they have a positive or negative view of him, the most negative are women, and they are intensely negative."
The survey also found 61 per cent of Canadians say their trust in Mr. Harper has not changed since he was elected. Fourteen per cent said it had increased and 23 per cent said it had decreased.
Conservatives often say the "hidden agenda" angle won't fly as a Liberal argument. These findings suggest the argument is alive and well:
Mr. Bricker traced doubts about Mr. Harper to his inability so far to erase questions about whether he is being upfront about his agenda for the country.
"With Harper, the not knowing him always leads people into the impression that he may have a hidden agenda," Mr. Bricker said. "He hasn't been able to fill in those blanks. And because he hasn't filled it in, the lingering impression is that he has some sort of hidden agenda."
Mr. Bricker said Mr. Harper's "mystery man" status is a political handicap. "For all those who think this is going to be a cakewalk for Stephen Harper in the next election campaign, this should be a big yellow light."
After a full year in office, you would think Canadians would have a better understanding of what Harper is really about. The apprehension, and the confusion, serve as proof that Canadians haven't yet embraced our Prime Minister or his policies. This reality leaves an opening for those that suggest we haven't yet seen the real Harper- a powerful check on majority talk.
I would speculate that these findings are a function of Harper's hyper-politicism. There have been other polls, particularly on the environment, that show Canadians believe the policies are driven by politics, as opposed to conviction. Canadians often agree with the direction, but question the motivation. This situation may explain why they don't quite trust Harper, the rhetoric has a hollow quality that people have picked up on.
Dion strategists should see opportunity in Harper's failure to really connect. Dion's faults have been well documented, but his inherent strength is his genuine character and almost apolitical candor. Highlighting these attributes may provide an interesting contrast to the "mystery man". With Dion you get what you see, with Harper you get what you want to hear. For all the Tory effort to define Dion, it would appear the Prime Minister is still workable clay. Liberals can still work the pottery wheel and do some shaping. Conclusions, no sale yet.
10 comments:
This really should come as no surprise to anybody. Canadians have not embraced him and he has done nothing to make them do so.
A few weeks ago the media were all in a tizzy over the leadership and respect numbers for Mr. Harper but they all failed to ask the one important question. Do Canadians like Mr. Harper?
The answer is clearly no. What is also clear is Canadians do not really like his polices either.
So again the media failed to ask the question: If Canadians respect the salesman, but they do not like him or what he is peddling, will they buy from him?
I think the answer is clearly self-evident.
You just get that feeling he wants a majority so badly just so he can totally mow through a hidden agenda (e.g abortion, same sex, holding hands and skipping off with Bush if he should choose to go to war with Iran). Shouldn't the focus be on governing and continuing to govern through cooperation, as opposed to throwing a switch everytime a poll says your good to wipe out the other guys now? I never saw the Martin threaten to throw the switch (with a budget he knows won't pass the opposition) after only one year even when his poll numbers were 40% and steady. He just kept trying to get his budgets through and govern.
"Shouldn't the focus be on governing and continuing to govern through cooperation"
I don't think the last election campaign ever ended. The entire focus, freely admitted by Tory strategists, is do whatever it takes to get the majority. A good example of this mentality, remember when Harper was first elected, and his priorities should have been finding a cabinet, getting up to speed? Instead, the Tories were spending energy getting their Quebec organization together to be better prepared for the next election. A small tidbit, but a good gauge of the real priority.
This comes as no surprise to me as a woman. My revulsion towards him is visceral as well as intellectual as I know his politics before he feigned moderation. My mother who is not political changes the channel when he is on as she thinks he is creepy and doesn't trust him. She thinks he has malice behind his eyes and is a robot. I truly think he hates the liberal nature of this country as much as many of us have a deep love of the tolerance and social justice -liberalism of this nation. He will destroy this country given a majority as he doesn't 'get' Canada and has a narrow view of life and the world from a lack of any travel before he was leader of the opposition. One is allowed to maintain naive views when their experience is narrow and too focused on right wing think tanks and his evangelical fundamentalist religion. This doesn't make for a wise soul.
Bricker's descriptor, "Mystery man", is a bit too romantic for me. I can think of few men who are less appealing, in all aspects.
That said, I agree with you Steve, it could be good news. It's rather disconceting that more people don't see through him, but I recognise that not many really follow politics.
If 72% of women still don't know him any better than they did a year ago, that's not good and throwing cheques around isn't going to fix that, especially when accompanied by one of his boring, repetitive, "new gov't" speeches. (As an aside, alot is made of how Dion speaks, but I think Harper is awful. His cadence is odd and his inflection rises at the end of each phrase. Drives me nuts, but that's me).
Now, how does this poll fit with the other recent one that said he was making headway with women? It appears not to.
The survey also found 61 per cent of Canadians say their trust in Mr. Harper has not changed since he was elected. Fourteen per cent said it had increased and 23 per cent said it had decreased.
This is a rather odd finding IMO. There is an obvious net decrease in trust, by those whose opinions have changed. What is odd though is the first number. 61% may not have changed their opinion, but if you asked me if my trust in Harper has changed, I'd say no, as I never trusted him to begin with and still don't. If in fact the number represents 61% of those who did trust him, I presume that means 61% of 36% who voted for him?
The bottom line is being an enigma, is not a good thing. A dull policy, power driven, mean spirited enigma, is worse, especially when facing a someone who shows sincerity like Dion. Dion may not be charismatic in the classic sense, but I think we'll see something unique emerge when they face off.
Here is exactly why I was in such hearty agreement with you regarding the Harper problem asking Canadians to take his multiple epiphanies on faith without explanation as to why he was wrong before and why he now believes the things he now professes to that he spent two decades opposing previously loudly and publicly. Thank you Steve V I needed this reassurance that he was not selling himself as the "new and improved centrist" Harper successfully and this survey does appear to confirm that. Given how poorly he did in the last election (and it was a poor result given all the factors he had going in his favour by Election Day) that indicated that most Canadians had little to no trust in him to start with. Therefore if the bulk of those stayed the same along with those that follow him blindly or oppose him bitterly then the significance of a near 2-1 decrease in trust by those whose positions changed does not bode well after over a year in office.
The problem for Mr. Harper though is that he cannot define himself to adequately deal with this problem if he does not actually commit himself to specific overall principles and policies instead of the piecemeal buy whatever votes one can approach he is currently following. Worse, since he does have that powerful decades long history of some very hard right by our political context/standards positions and that he maintained them from the late 80s until after the 2004 election defeat for the CPC he cannot simply say what he believes now as a centrist that he opposed in the past without explaining how the "epiphany" occurred and his explanation of why he was wrong is another way of confirming he is repudiating that belief, and without those true repudiations I do not see how he crosses this threshold.
This is what I was hoping my fellow Canadians would recognize was going on, that what we have seen so far is still the election Harper and not the real PM Harper, the one that would come out with his majority. His focus on being "decisive" and his clear hyperpartisan approach makes it harder to warm to the man as a person and as a leader for many Canadians since one of the main qualities for our idea of what a good leader displays is compassion, and there Harper comes up terribly short indeed. His willingness to wage total war politics reminiscent of our GOP neighbours cannot be helping either, as our proximity to America makes it impossible for most Canadians not to absorb at least subconsciously what has happened that way to our American cousins' politics sensitizing Canadians somewhat when it shows up in ours which reinforces the Liberal message of neocon/movement conservative Harper which is not something most Canadians find comforting for a PM whatever the party. This is a nation after all that was deliberately created/birthed as an anti-American response to the American Revolution after all so that is hardly surprising nor anti-Canadian/unpatriotic to have pride in Canadian developed beliefs, traditions, and institutions especially when they are not based off of American concepts not to mention the preference for a "made in Canada" solution should also be preferred especially in how we practice our politics.
Harper appears to retain the essential weakness of playing the hide the ideology game once one has been so open for so long as he was. I mean really, one can find more than enough to tar and feather him in the ideology regard as a hard to true neocon/movement conservative just from his days as LOO as the CA leader after all. This is what I know is most important to keep alive to prevent him from succeeding with his majority quest. I am grateful to see it still appears to be out there despite all the bright shiny objects Harper has been throwing out there to distract those voters that do not spend much time following politics on a day to day basis like we do. It is upon my belief/conviction/hope that Canadians would not respond the same way to certain American/GOP political tools in the same way Americans did/do that I have wanted to believe that Canadians were not being beguiled by Harper and his shiny CPC government, and this helps me maintain that hope, and I again thank you for bringing it to my attention.
knb
That's a great insight on the trust question. Mine hasn't changed either.
I'm in agreement with all comments here (hmm, even the sadly clownish Decoin -- I should check my meds) but would like to caution us on getting too giddy. Through his flips and flops -- the latest being, surprise! money for women's groups (after going Norman Bates on their funding eight months ago) -- he's gaining grudging approval by more and more people, at least that's my impression.
Here in my riding, the Cons have recruited a liberal volunteer as their candidate -- a visible minority woman. Now we all know the women in Harpor's circle smile and nod on cue and encircle him like the pretty models hold up Bob Barker... They are given little leeway, like the rest of his caucus, to think out loud or to add anything to the discussion. Hey, that reminds me, what's Michael Chong up to these days? Oh yeah, anyways, Harpor's hitmen actually blocked real party members from running.
http://www.thenownews.com/issues07/032207/news/032207nn5.html
While the goal is to soften up the ol' image and buy votes the old fashion way, he also recognizes that the media and public notice when a rightwing-religious zealot wacko picks up a nomination. So he's spicing up his candidates, in suburban ridings specifically, with liberal-lite people. Same in Newton-North Delta -- a former liberal volunteer. That they'll never be able to get a word in but will have the occasional photo op to attend seems to be worthy rewards -- and I've seen here in Gordo Campbell's first term how many decent people will wear the gag and ignore their constituents because of that power thingy.
Right now, I can only imagine Harpor's reaction to these numbers -- he's called up his 'hockey history' ghost writer and asked them to squeeze more pictures of kittens in the book.
It's all about smoke and mirrors with this Conserva-bot. The key is to use what we know to help define him more, while letting people see our leader as the more human, humane and policy-wise guy that he is.
www.canadianrosebud.blogspot.com
"The key is to use what we know to help define him more, while letting people see our leader as the more human, humane and policy-wise"
A positive agenda, with a dash of negative framing.
People I know are saying the same thing. What is related to this & is not being said in the Media, & the opposition is the $17+ Billion in un-tendered contracts at DND. The C-17 aircraft alone is $220 if you’re the US Air Force but $800 million if you’re the CDN Forces. If the Tories are quietly shelling out $2 billion more for these planes what other secrets is STEVE hiding?
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