Thursday, March 08, 2007

New Decima Poll

A new Decima poll:
A new poll suggests the federal Conservatives have regained support among women and city-dwellers, crucial demographic groups that are key to any hope of a Tory majority.

The Decima survey, provided to The Canadian Press, suggests the trend is the reason for the Conservatives' six percentage point lead nationally over the Liberals – 35 to 29.

There is one huge silver lining for the Liberals though – they are way ahead of the Tories in Quebec, in a virtual tie with the Bloc Quebecois.

The poll, conducted last weekend, placed the NDP at 15 per cent, the Green party at 11, and the Bloc Quebecois at seven.

The most obvious one is that the Tory momentum may be levelling off. The governing party had been on a surge since January and had rocketed to a nine-point lead in a Decima survey last week.

The new numbers show the Tories with a smaller lead and leaves them well shy of the support level they would need for a majority government.

The second Liberal bright spot is Quebec. Not since the sponsorship scandal exploded three years ago has the Liberal party seen such a promising score in the seat-rich province.

The Liberals lagged just two percentage points – a statistical dead heat – behind the Bloc Quebecois. The long-dominant Bloc was at 31 per cent in the province, while the Liberals were at 29 and the Tories were well back at 17.

In Ontario, the Tories held on to their advantage, leading the Liberals 37 per cent to 32 per cent. The NDP and Green party were tied at 14 per cent.

There were few bright spots for the NDP.

Last week's Decima numbers had the Conservatives at 36%, the Liberals at 27%- translation the bleeding has stopped. The good news, the Liberals are up a full 6% in Quebec, nipping at the BQ heels. It would appear lying ads have failed, and the election is actually benefiting the Liberals, much to Harper's dismay.

The Ontario numbers are bad news, and the pattern is consistent. Decima seems to give the Greens high percentages, and it is quite relevant that they tie the NDP in Ontario. This condition should give Liberals some comfort, as voters oscillate on the center-left, come election time there should be some leakage back to the Liberals.

Conclusion, Liberals have already hit bottom.

23 comments:

knb said...

Isn't the title of the article interesting? You'd think that the con's are surging forward. They've in fact dropped a point the Lib's have picked up two.

That aside, the Ontario women thing is weird. I'll have to do some more thinking on that and where on earth the appeal would be. As a woman, all I can say is, ugh, to personalities and policies.

I agree that the Quebec numbers bode well. Also:

Among respondents aged 18 to 24, the Liberals were at 30 per cent, the Conservatives were at 23, the Green party had 20, and the NDP was at 15.

Given that it looks like many of the "old boys", will be retiring from the Lib's, (no disrespect intended, most have done a fabulous job), that means new blood and maybe people that youth can relate to.

Obviously, you have to look at the age demographic in the province, (On), who votes and who is apt to vote if the next election is exciting. I certainly haven't seen any Kennedy's or Trudeau's (provinces aside), on the con side. If Poilievre is their example of how to attract youth, yay!

Steve V said...

knb

Good call on the title, it gives the appearance of massive majority. Isn't that a Liberal paper?

Are the women numbers a function of the Liberals scoring low, or the Tories really moving up? Even with this finding, 70% of women don't support the Tories, so it's hardly a major coup.

Scott Blurton said...

My guess is that the anti-terror debate (or lack thereof) helped the tories and hurt them in quebec. It helped them in Ontario by allowing them to appeal to Security moms, that would also explain their bump up in the female demographic. In quebec, the liberal numbers jumped probably due to Dion "courageous" leadership (according to BQ member Serge Menard) may have impressed francophones in Quebec while Harper's "soft on terror" theme has rubbed them the wrong way. While we're still behind, I think this poll is good news as it helps to restablish us as the federalist alternative in quebec or perhaps more accurately, the progressive option in quebec. But we'll see after the budget when Harper transfer a couple of billion dollars to the Quebec government. Then we may see some changes.

Sheeple said...

Kudos to you Scott on calling the Conservatives stalling support back a week ago. Definitely looks like that is holding. Not a good sign for the Cons.

Sheeple said...

Sorry,

Steve. I meant Steve.

Steve V said...

sheeple

I'm not sure if I did call that necessarily, but the "surge" was more a Liberal decline than anything. Maybe we are seeing two things with this poll, Liberal bottom, Tory ceiling.

brant liberal said...

Wait for the budget. Tories will get up to 38% and pull the plug. Think of the Tories as climbing a ladder. They are positioned to rise when the money flows out of Ottawa.
The Quebec Liberal numbers are highly suspect.
Also watch for big Tory rally in Toronto later this month - MSM will declare Harper-mania in T.O.
We haven't hit the Tory ceiling yet...

knb said...

Steve, Liberal paper, lol. For all the whining we hear, if it doesn't support the right and all of their views, (no matter how balanced), it's a left wing, blah. blah, blah. Got your sarcasm though, :).

As for the women, I think it's due to the Lib's, not really scoring low, but not scoring, YET. Once the Lib's get face time, watch those numbers soar.

Pit Martha Hall-Findlay against Bev Oda, Marlene Jennings against Helena Geurgis, and any fulfilled woman up against Diane (bitter) Finley, there is no comparison.

We'll see, but it's not just the men in that party who do not speak to me as a woman, it's the women too.

knb said...

Brant lib...not in my lifetime will I see:

Harper-mania in T.O.

Steve V said...

"Harper-mania in T.O."

I would view that as a clear signal that we have entered the end times.

ottlib said...

The movement of the national numbers compared to last week's poll is within the margin of error.

The gap in Ontario is within the regional margin of error.

So it can reasonably be concluded that not much has changed from last week and the Conservatives numbers in Ontario are not as impressive as they appear.

What does stand out is the Liberal numbers in Quebec. That is the story of this poll and a story that needs to be watch closely over the next few weeks.

I stated last week (or was it two weeks ago?) on your blog that I expect the Liberal numbers to return to their level of November (30-34%) and the Conservative numbers to do the same (32-36%) over the next couple of weeks.

Steve V said...

"I stated last week (or was it two weeks ago?) on your blog that I expect the Liberal numbers to return to their level of November (30-34%) and the Conservative numbers to do the same (32-36%) over the next couple of weeks."

Yes you did :)

Sheeple said...

Well anyway, I thought it was you. And I think that you're correct in stating that we're seeing two things here, a Dion bottom and a Harper ceiling

Steve V said...

I'm wondering if 40% is still the level required to talk about a majority. Could it now be 38% or so, given the rise of the Greens and the further splintering of the vote?

Dana said...

I'd be willing to wager on 35%.

A little over a third of the voters will enable a government oppposed by a little under two thirds of the people.

What a great system.

Steve V said...

dana

Doesn't that make the term "majority government" just plain odd?

Scott Tribe said...

..which is why proportional representation should be an issue the Liberals push to end this unjust and unfair system.

:)

Ol.. so Dion gets called a 1-trick pony for his Environmental stance.. and I guess you can all call me a 1-trick-blogger.

Steve V said...

scott

Do you have a three-pillars of PR approach?

Woman at Mile 0 said...

Well that a bit of good news for the Libs. Nice.

ottlib said...

Steve:

I believe 40% or more is still the benchmark for a majority government.

Remember when the right was split it was between two parties that could count on almost equal support from well established bases.

The Green Party is showing signs of life but I have serious doubts about how deep it is and how committed it is. I believe its base is still around 5%, it can probably expect a bump of about 3%, which if reasonably focused could gain them a seat. Otherwise do not be surprised if they fail yet again to gain any seats.

Although the progressive vote is fractured between three parties, one of those parties is dominant. So do not expect the required support for a majority government to be less than 40%.

Scott:

I have said it before and I will say it again, God save Canada from proportional representation.

Our politics is becoming too calcified as it is and PR would only accelerate and deepen that trend.

Steve V said...

ottlib

That sounds reasonable, so long as the Green support is minimal. I predict May wins a seat next election.

Sheeple said...

Steve,

I already made that prediction, it's mine.

Steve V said...

Okay, it's ours :)