The Decima survey, provided to The Canadian Press, puts the Tories at 35 per cent support nationally, with the Liberals at 31 per cent. The Conservatives would likely need at least 40 per cent support to secure a majority. The results, gathered Thursday through Sunday, indicate no bump for the party in the wake of last week's federal budget.
In Quebec, the Tories finished ahead of the Liberals for the first time in five months with 25 per cent support.
The Liberals were at 20 per cent, while the Bloc Quebecois led with 34 per cent.
But in Ontario, the Liberals held a commanding eight-point lead, with 41 per cent backing compared to 33 per cent for the Conservatives.
The two polls that were taken in the afterglow of the budget showed a moderate Tory bounce. This poll has results up until March 25, so it provides a better read budget reaction, allowing for some digestion. Initial press coverage was decidedly favorable, but my reading was the budget reaction turned in the following days. This poll would support the argument that the budget did little for Harper.
The Quebec numbers are encouraging for Harper, but those Ontario numbers certainly rain on the parade. Whatever Harper hoped to gain with his Quebec windfall may have backfired, as the perception of unfair allotment took hold. Having said that, Ontario numbers do appear to be all over the place, depending on the poll.
Decima has the Conservatives with the same result as they did at the beginning of the month, with the Liberals up slightly. No momentum, fragile minority terrority, no bounce, according to Decima.