H/T Scott Tribe
It what classifies for the, "most misleading headline category", this beauty from NP: "Good-news budget could push Tories into majority territory". The funny part, the headline isn't based on speculation but polling:
Bricker said with the Conservatives at 36 per cent in national support in the latest poll, all Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the Tories require are six additional percentage points to put them into a majority government situation.
Since the Liberals hold 34 per cent in the same survey, up two points from the beginning of the month, attracting one-third of their vote with the budget would give the Tories 46 per cent and a landslide victory.
The poll, which was conducted between March 13-15 with a random sample of 1,000 adults via telephone interviews, also showed the NDP at 12 per cent in national support, the Greens at eight per cent and the Bloc Quebecois at nine per cent.
In Quebec, which is embroiled in a tight three-party provincial election race, the Liberals, at 27 per cent, remain the federalist alternative to the Bloc, at 33 percent, while the Conservatives are up one percentage point to 22 per cent.
In Ontario, the Grits and the Tories are in a virtual tie, with 39 per cent and 38 per cent support respectively, while the NDP has 12 per cent and the Greens hold nine per cent.
Bricker said the worst news for the Conservatives in the poll is the Liberal lead in coastline provinces, jumping up 10 points to 35 per cent in British Columbia, and eight points to 47 per cent in Atlantic Canada. The Tories, meanwhile, are down four points to 34 per cent support in B.C. and nine points in Atlantic Canada to 39 per cent.
Big gains in British Columbia, the Liberals up nationally since the last Ipsos poll, while the Conservatives remain where they were. Sounds like a majority too me?? The poll is a deadheat, but if you want to use the last election as backdrop, Harper is still in fragile minority terrority, while the Liberals are up. How anyone can use this poll as pretext to majority, despite the budget, is an exercise in seismic spin. Nice try.
3 comments:
Aargh.
I do not like to put too much weight on polls, or much weight on polling bias, but I have to say that IR is probably one of the worst. I remember in the last election they were predicting a majority or a strong minority for the conservatives.
I do not know Darryl Bricker, but I met his brother Cal when he lived in Edmonton (they are identical twins, and it totally freaked me out when Darryl started appearing on the news). Cal was a HUGE pal of the provincial tories - went golfing with cabinet ministers etc.
Don't know if that means anything, but I do believe IR is slanted towards the conservatives.
Still, my opinion remains that it is the media who want an election.
As an aside, May has announced she will run in McKay's riding- now that's juicy.
Wow, Darryl is spinning so fast the G-forces must be going to his head.
I have to go to an event this afternoon otherwise I would pick this one apart but suffice it to say that this poll indicates that it is anybodies game right now and that both the Liberals and the Conservatives are within striking distance of a majority government.
Interesting note about Ms. May Steve. That would be an interesting race.
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