Thursday, March 15, 2007

New Poll

The bleeding has stopped:
When respondents were asked who they would vote for today, the results showed little difference from about a month ago (percentage-point change from a Feb. 15-18 poll in brackets):


Liberals: 31 per cent (+ 2)
Conservatives: 36 per cent (+ 2)
NDP: 15 per cent (+ 1)
Bloc Quebecois: 9 (- 2)
Green Party: 10 (- 2)

Quebec:
Liberals: 22 per cent (none)
Conservatives: 26 per cent (+ 8 per cent)
NDP: 9 per cent (+ 1)
Bloc Quebecois: 36 per cent (- 7)
Green Party: 7 per cent (- 2)

Ontario:
Liberals: 41 per cent (+ 2)
Conservatives: 34 per cent (none)
NDP: 15 per cent (+ 1)
Bloc Quebecois: N/A
Green Party: 10 per cent (- 3)

The Quebec numbers are concerning, but Gregg admits a high margin of error. This may be based on bias, but I'm not trusting any results while the election is taking place- these results may simply be a function of the volatile provincial situation.

The good news for Liberals, Strategic Counsel has a healthy lead in Ontario, which is critical, for obvious reasons.

It would appear the polling numbers have calmed down, which is relevant in terms of perception. No more stories about Dion plummeting, these stabilized results should allow for reasonable analysis, maybe, dare I say it, some EVEN coverage.

You would expect Harper to receive some benefit from the santa claus routine, the fact that the numbers are largely stagnant is a net negative for the Conservative. Gregg spins these results as tempting for Harper to call an election:
"If I was Stephen Harper looking at this, I'd say, 'I still have some work to do, but you know what? I can't do worse than 2006,'" said Gregg.


"He's recovered the ground he's lost post-Afghanistan, same-sex-marriage, I-won't-do-Kyoto, in the province of Quebec. All those seats we'd anticipated he might lose are now back in the win column."

I don't see the optimism in these numbers, it looks like Dion has weathered the storm and the Tories aren't moving. The numbers are too close for anyone to be particularly optimistic.

12 comments:

Gayle said...

Didn't one of the seemingly hundreds of recent polls have the exact opposite results in Ontario and Quebec? (That is, conservatives leading in Ontario and Liberals leading in Quebec).

I really think the only people who want an election are the media - and perhaps the polling companies.

Sheeple said...

New poll, but the story remains the same. Harper has stalled while Dion has bottomed out. Me thinks that we've seen a ceiling for Harper here, but there's plenty of room for Dion to grow.

Steve V said...

You mean last week's Decima poll:

"The Liberals lagged just two percentage points – a statistical dead heat – behind the Bloc Quebecois. The long-dominant Bloc was at 31 per cent in the province, while the Liberals were at 29 and the Tories were well back at 17.

In Ontario, the Tories held on to their advantage, leading the Liberals 37 per cent to 32 per cent. The NDP and Green party were tied at 14 per cent."

Steve V said...

sheeple

A ceiling that money can't penetrate apparently.

Anonymous said...

Well you liberals better hope either way that somehow the budget passes, I cant see there not being an election with all the ads from two parties and the media provoking it. I was talking to a professer today at my unversity and he says once people watch the debates its over for Dion. English Canada will give the back of our hand and the french will remember his legacy and disrespect of their culture. Good luck libeals in the upcoming contest

Joseph said...

Well, if your professor has proclaimed it, it must be true.

How does your professor see the US extricating themselves from Iraq? Has he solved global warming yet?

Why do we even bother having a democracy when your professor could just run things. Geeesh, we sheep are so stupid.

Anonymous said...

Actually my professer once worked with Mr. Dion at the university of Moncton. Professers knew him as arrogant and unapproachable. Is he someone youd be able to run and hug? would your children want to do the same? No hes akward and like macleans magazine said. " he seams to pivot on spine"

ottlib said...

Ah, so your professor does not like Mr. Dion and has projected that on the rest of society.

As well, I note that your professor seems to use the same language as many Blogging Tories.

Or maybe your professor was just testing you to see if you would ask these two very obvious questions.

Since the debates will take place in the middle of week three of the campaign, why would his language ability become an issue then and not during the previous three weeks?

Since the TV ratings for the debates is always pathetically low, how could his language skills during them have that much of an impact, considering very few people will watch them?

Then again maybe this professor is just a figment of your imagination because you believe that saying your statements come from him gives them more credibility than if they just came from you, another anonymous troll cruising around the blogsphere.

As for the topic of this post. Meh. Not much to see. As expected the two parties are settling back to the levels they were at before the Liberal convention.

Sheeple: I too noticed the contrast between this poll and the Decima poll vis-a-vis the Quebec results. It is easily explained by the fact it is two polls using two different methodologies and it is reasonable to say that neither is completely right.

My reading of it is Quebec is shaping up to be a three way race this time so it should be interesting.

Anonymous said...

well since you cant figure this out yourself. for one more canadians will be watching the debate than any amoutn at one time watching loyd robertons or mike duffy live. second of all it will showcase stephen harper against Dion directly. Dion is easily intimated as well as seams to have a studdering problem. Did you see the poll that just came out showing only 47% of anglophone men gave his english a passing grade compared to 81% of fracophones either giving haprer good or very good rating. take that. and no my professer is a real guy a lotmore real than the liberal party of ahh who do they govern now?

Steve V said...

lol

"Is he someone youd be able to run and hug?"

If I had just one word, cuddly is how I would describe Stephen Harper. If your going to criticize, maybe try someone with some personality as your comparison point. A potted plant would match up well against the Harper charisma.

Sheeple said...

I, for one, would definitely hug Dion.

rockfish said...

My chiropractor said that Harpor needs to realign his chakra and forget about those double-chocolates he's prone to dip in his triple mocca. If a chiropractor had to hug a politician, he voted to hug michelle hassen or bill blaikie, for two completely different reasons.
My chiropractor also said spine is in, so Dion is his choice. He wouldn't have his dog shake Harpor's hand, never mind a child. He also said exercise that lumbar or you'll be sorry, anonymoos...