Friday, March 30, 2007

"The Liberals haven't gone away"

I think this is an important poll, considering it's the same firm that last week gave the Tories a huge lead:
The post-budget bubble has burst for the federal Conservatives, ending a flirtation with popularity numbers that put them in majority government territory, a new national poll says.

The poll also suggests the Tories got virtually no bounce from Monday's Quebec election,

The Conservatives, after surging to the "magic" majority number of 40 per cent in the immediate aftermath of last week's budget, have dropped four points to 36 per cent - the same level of support they secured when they won a minority victory in the Jan. 23, 2006 election.

The Liberals were up two points to 31 per cent since last week's poll, the NDP was up one point to 15 per cent, the Green party was up two points to nine per cent, and the Bloc Quebecois dropped one point to eight per cent.

What is particularly relevant, Ipsos own polling proves the folly of conducting a survey right after a budget is released. There was another online poll released by Angus-Reid, showing the Conservatives well up, but I'm disregarding any finding that shows the Liberals fourth in Quebec, behind the NDP- let's keep it real people.

It would appear that the budget has actually cost the Conservatives when you do the regional breakdown. The Liberals are up 13% in Atlantic Canada, 7% in Saskatchewan, 5% in Ontario. The only regions the Grits lost ground were a 3% drop in Quebec and the always irrelevant 7% drop in Alberta.

Harper lost ground in British Columbia, with a sizable 7% drop and an 8% plunge in Ontario, despite "fixing" the fiscal imbalance. It would appear that the budget did the Conservatives no favors, a 1% rise in Quebec isn't quite what the payoff had in mind, and the backlash would appear to be pronounced.

If these numbers held on election day, the Tories would be wiped off the map in Atlantic Canada, lose seats in the Prairies and possibly B.C, with Ontario quite competitive, as well as Quebec. That doesn't translate to a majority scenario in my mind, the budget has alienated many, and any potential gains could be offset by the loss of incumbents.

It's hard to sift through all the contradictions in the various polling, but I think this Ipso-Reid poll has credibility, given the fact it was the one that Tory strategists probably kept under their pillow last week. Maybe Dion is right when he says "never has so much be done with so little". No bounce is a major failure, by any objective measure, given the favorable circumstance.

7 comments:

Sheeple said...

Hard caps on Harper's support levels across the country... What we've been saying for the past few weeks Steve.

MrvnMouse said...

Angus-Reid's methodology: Online interviews with 2,056 Canadian adults, conducted from Mar. 20 to Mar. 28, 2007. Margin of error is 2.2 per cent.

Umm...

Can we say selection bias?

Steve V said...

That online poll consistently looks to be an outlier. Those Quebec numbers are just ridiculous.

ottlib said...

Liberals fourth place in Quebec. Now that's comedy.

Angus must of been sipping a little too much of the Highland necter to release numbers like that.

As for the Ipsos poll, I think everybody should know my opinion now about polls so I will leave it at that.

knb said...

I still cannot figure out why every polling firm is out daily. Everyone in Ottawa seems to be in this self-affirming mind set and I find that disturbing.

I'm not so sure that they are on top of things, (as they should be), as much as they driving them.

Pray tell, who in Canada really knows what Dion is saying, aside from us? About the only press the man gets is Harper's opinion of what he's said. Even when his events are written about, the stories are buried and not given the import that those of the PM have been given. I would not say that is unusual however.

Harper's not made gains and by all reports, he has more ugly ads and will continue to use the bully pulpit. They are very good at this and we must recognise that. That said, I say fight back, but from the high road.

If we all get into the gutter, that is where Canada will stay for a while and that's not the country I know.

James said...

knb - my suggestion for the Liberals is to use satire in the upcoming campaign to show just how shallow the Conservatives policies are, and to show just how childish their bullying tactics are. Don't back down and don't make the same mistake John Kerry made, taking the high road by ignoring low level attacks. The Liberals must confront these attacks and tear them down... the best way to achieve this in my book is to use humour. Canadians love humour in the Airfarce tradition.

knb said...

James, I'd love to see that as part of a strategy, but boy, it's tough to pull off.

I agree though, we cannot do what Kerry and team did.

Maybe some Air Farce actor's would donate their time, ;).