Monday, March 19, 2007

Interesting Quebec Poll

Given the party polling numbers, this finding by SES is somewhat surprising:
Liberal leader Jean Charest inspires the most confidence among Quebecers and is seen as the best person to defend Quebec's interests in Ottawa, an SES Research poll shows. Results show 41 per cent of Quebecers feel Charest would best ensure Quebec receives its fair share from the federal government, compared with 28 per cent for Parti Quebecois leader Andre Boisclair and 13 per cent for Action democratique leader Mario Dumont.

Charest enjoys quite a gap, on a crucial question, which might translate into some last minute sway towards the Liberals. The sovereignists always lay claim to defending Quebec's interests, and Dumont has even poked fun at Charest's popularity outside Quebec. The fact that Dumont is well behind on this measure reaffirms the soft support argument.

You could speculate the budget will play into this apparent Charest strength. With the PQ on board, Charest faces little criticism on Harper delivering. Charest now has a powerful argument for federalism, and I hope he makes the point that the PQ's combative stance would have never delivered. A spirit of co-operation doesn't sell out Quebec's interests and Charest should take some comfort that Quebec's see this as strength.


ottlib said...

It is interesting to hear the Separatist take on the budget.

Essentially, they are saying that they like the budget because it will give them all sorts of cash to use to bring about their dream when they win the Quebec election.

I fear that might be the final result. Jeffrey Simpson had an interesting post in the Globe today. His argument is essentially that Quebecers will not give Mr. Charest or Mr. Harper much credit for the extra money because they believe they are entitled to it anyway.

It is an interesting argument and if you look at the reaction of such folks who are supposedly federalists, such as Antonio over at Fuddle Duddle, it rings true. If federalists believe that I could only imagine what separatists and nationalists believe.

Scott Tribe said...

Thats an interesting take Steve.. but you and the Gazette are only looking at one part of the SES poll.. which A BC'er in Toronto mentioned and which I also talked about earlier today. Those other #'s arent so encouraging for Charest, and indicate all this extra money may have no effect or even a negative effect on both him and Harper.

Steve V said...

Hi Scott:

I noticed that, after I saw this portion. One encouraging part that Jeff cited:

Associate with Provincial Liberals (N=129)
More favourably - 48.0%
About the same - 29.8%
Less favourably - 18.9%
Unsure - 3.3%

That finding counter-balances the personal numbers in my mind.


I just saw Duceppe on Cspan and his rhetoric was downright offensive. We secured this money for Quebec and now we can use it to achieve sovereignty.

I've always found this presentation relevant, because it basically reveals the Quebec fraud on imbalance. Duceppe said Landry deserves credit for demonstrating the imbalance, which is hardly a testament to its authentic existence.

After today's announcement, this should end the debate. I suspect it won't, but I think English Canada won't remain passive anymore if the complaining continues, because clearly federalism means a disporportionate share for Quebec. The squeaky wheel gets the oil.

The fiscal imbalance was an illusion, propagated by people with no interest in Canada, given validity by an eager politican looking to make inroads. Enough.

ottlib said...

I would point out Steve that Dalton McGuinty hopped on the fiscal imbalance bandwagon after the disaster that resulted from his government imposing the health premium.

So it is not just a Quebec thing and I think you are smart enough to realize that this will never end.

As for Mr. Duceppes statements I cannot think of something that will piss off Canadians more than hearing him say that. I wonder if Canadians will connect the dots and realize just what Stephen Harper has given the separatists, especially if they win the Quebec election.

Then again, I believe Mr. Duceppe is just stalling to see what the impact of the budget will be in the Quebec election. It would not surprise me one bit for him to change his tune if it turns out the impact is not very significant, which is what I believe will be the case.

Steve V said...


The only difference, McGuinty may actually have a point. Having said that, premiers will act in their self-interest, so if anything is proposed that will increase revenues, there on board.

Anonymous said...

Fuddle Duddle like to rattle chains and that's all he does. Whatever you say he'll say the opposite so I take what he says with a grain of salt.

I think he has some sort of ego problem or something.