Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Poll Internals

Harris Decima has released the internals from their latest poll. One thing I found curious, did you know that two weeks ago this outfit had the Liberals ahead, outside of the margin of error? Why that was never published seems odd, since it was the first time since the leadership convention bounce that the Liberals reached 35% nationally, a full four points ahead of the Conservatives. You would think a poll that showed the Liberals clearly out front would be news worthy, but apparently not.

Anyways, the latest week, as already mentioned, shows a deadheat. However, when you look at the regional numbers, a deadheat looks like a clear Liberal advantage:
Quebec:

Bloc 34%
Libs 26%
Cons 20%
NDP 11%
Greens 8%

Another Quebec poll that shows the Liberals with a healthy lead on the Conservatives. As mentioned in a previous post, CROP mentions the party leaders when they ask party preference questions, which probably explains the differing results we see. Do your own mental math, whether or not including the leader skews the results- I think it does.

Ontario:
Libs 39%
Cons 31%
Greens 14%
NDP 14%

The battle for third is particularly interesting.

British Columbia (high MOE):
Libs 31%
Cons 30%
NDP 23%
Greens 13%

Atlantic Canada:
Libs 37%
Cons 28%
NDP 27%
Greens 6%

The Conservatives don't lead anywhere, outside of their western base. What looks like a national tie, is actually a Liberal minority, if these numbers were to hold.

While the predictable partisans are patting themselves on the back, at just how clever the Conservatives are, the trends don't seem to support the bluster.

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

"Do your own mental math, whether or not including the leader skews the results- I think it does."

I think NOT including the leader skews the results. You have to hot people over the head with the fact that we are talking about FEDERAL politics and that we are asking about STEPHANE DION'S FEDERAL Liberal Party - we don't mean Jean Charest or Dalton McGuinty or Gordon Campbell - we mean the FEDERAL Liberals under the leadership of STEPHANE DION. If interjecting the fact that the leader of the federal Liberal Party is STEPHANE DION - instantly causes Liberal support to take a nosedive - there is a problem for the Liberals.

Steve V said...

I think the voter gets that its a federal question when you ask about the BLOC, the NDP and the GREENS. I'm not disputing Dion, but phrasing it that way discounts the brand, the party policies, the local candidate.

WesternGrit said...

You guys GOTTA STOP SAYING "WESTERN BASE" for the Reform-a-tories. If anything it's an Alberta-Sask-Rural Manitoba base. The Cons have trouble cracking Metro Winnipeg, "The North" (much of which happens to be part of the "The West"), and Metro Van/Van Island (they're even behind in BC overall).

Really though, they have an "Alberta base", as this is where they are "home" and don't have to fight tough battles anywhere but Edmonton (a town that Alberta Connies love to call "Red-monton").

We give them FAR too much credit when we call them a "Western Party". Personally speaking, we people out here in BC certainly don't like to be lumped in with Alberta - home of Calgary (recently declared Canada's hate-crime capital by a 3-1 margin)...

Steve V said...

grit

I thought the fact that BC numbers were seperate spoke to the west not being a monolith.

Old Fool said...

The Harper Tory support is strong in AB-SASK because the Harper Cabinet is really into traditional family values.

Traditional? You bet. As Abraham had an older Sarah and a youngeer Hagar, so too does Toews. And as Sampson had his Delilah, so too Max had... You get my drift, eh?

Old tyme Old Testament, can ya be more traditional that that?

ottlib said...

Since it is the Canadian Press that sponsors the Harris/Decima polls you would have to ask them why they failed to publish the last poll.

Damned Liberal media.

Looking at the voter intention graphic it is not difficult to see the slow but steady decline of the Conservatives and the NDP since the last election. Certainly both have spiked here and there but the overall trend is decline.

The Liberals on the other hand have pretty well held steady. There base is pretty strong and as several polls have been indicating recently they seem to be the party with the greatest growth potential.

Steve V said...

ottlib

Not so much in this poll, but the NDP looks to be rebounding somewhat the past couple of months. I think they have gotten some mileage out of the Liberals abstaining.

Antonio said...

"As mentioned in a previous post, CROP mentions the party leaders when they ask party preference questions, which probably explains the differing results we see."

so when quebecers are reminded that this is the Dion Liberals and not the (wildly surpsingly popular) Charest Liberals, the Liberal numbers go up you say?

but seriously, when the leader's name alone takes you down 5-6 points in Canada's second biggest province, that is a statement in and of itself

Blue Liberal said...

According to Lawrence Martin in today's Globe "Last week, the Liberal Leader was upbraided by Bob Rae who, supported by many in the room, went after him for lacking leadership instincts in refusing to trigger an election."

Apparently no one in the caucus stood up to defend Dion.

Looks like Rae is starting to lay down some markers.

Steve V said...

antonio

I don't deny that, but did voters in Outremont vote for Layton last election, or Mulclair?

Anonymous said...

"I don't deny that, but did voters in Outremont vote for Layton last election, or Mulcair?"

I think it was a combination of the two. The NDP signs in the riding all had Layton and Mulcair together. Layton was known to be the most popular federal leader in the riding and having a strong local candidate made people feel that this time voting NDP would not be a "wasted vote". A party is the sum of its parts - when a party wins its some combination of party image, the leader and the local candidate. A large part of the job of a leader is to attract top quality candidates - Layton attracted Mulcair. Remind of who Dion managed to attract to run in Outremont? Oh yeah that little uncooked sausage of a man - Coulon.

Anonymous said...

Outremont voted for the Party that campaigned in their riding. Since the Liberals didn't even have an office until three weeks into the by election or when it was half over, I don't even consider that we ran in that by-election.

The riding President was on holiday and refused to take volunteers who wanted to work on campaigning.

Ther Liberal Riding Association took a dive in that race for their own personal agenda, the NDP won by default.

If that is the case in a general election in Quebec, then numbers in polls mean nothing. If the situation has improved and the children who call themselves Liberals in Quebec have decided to behave, then the numbers might mean something.

Steve V said...

"the NDP won by default."

That's bunk. The NDP won because they were focused, they out worked us, they had a great candidate, with a good message. Give them some credit, it was a freaking Liberal bastion after all.