New numbers from NANOS and Decima, which are now in relative agreement. I think this similarity important, because the narrative of a Conservative downturn, a tightening race, has more weight, when we now have multiple sources, less opportunity for the media to hide behind whichever poll suits their bias.
NANOS shows little change from yesterday, the 4% gap now 5%. NANOS shows a further Conservative slide in all important Ontario, and like Decima, a strong NDP showing. On leadership, Dion bests Layton, but on best PM, Layton is now in new high terrority.
The Decima poll brings some striking trends. What was a 15% gap a mere THREE days ago, has narrowed to just 7%, as both the Liberals and NDP capitalize on failing Conservative fortunes. These Conservative numbers are pretty much bottom, so the Liberals need to consolidate some center-left support if they have a chance. In Ontario, the Conservatives are down to an extremely low 27%, but the NDP are up to a new high of 24% (Liberals 33%). In Quebec, Decima finally shows the Liberal bounce, up a full 10% in just two days, to a very encouraging 27%, within striking distance of the Bloc at 33%, the Conservatives support falling off a cliff, now at 18%, NDP stuck.
Liberals up noticeably with male voters, a full 7%. Dion now pulls even with Harper on favorable/unfavorable numbers, which may be the most important sub sample of all. It's all about Harper for the Conservatives, if Dion is relatively competitive, advantage Liberals.
What is becoming clear now, if the Liberals are too close the gap further, it must come at the expense of the NDP and Greens. There is no question the NDP are showing real strength, particularly in Ontario. One has to wonder how the economic argument plays in the final days, but while the Liberal numbers are solid, they need to draw the center-left support.
That aside, this week's narrative of a Conservative slump is cemented and it will be interesting to see the war room react to real negativity, the free ride over, some tightening around the collar, or sweater, as the case may be.